Shafaq News (Updated at 18:09)

The drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field late Wednesday plunged the Kurdistan Region into one of its worst electricity crises in years, highlighting the vulnerability of its most strategic energy hub and reviving debate over the political and regional motives behind repeated strikes on Iraq’s largest gas-producing facility.

The hit—following several days of airspace incursions and heightened security alerts—ignited a major fire, forced an immediate shutdown, and caused a sharp collapse in electricity generation across three provinces.

Shafaq News correspondents reported widespread outages in Nineveh, Al-Sulaymaniyah, Erbil, and Duhok after the strike on the Chamchamal installation. With gas flows suddenly halted, supply hours dropped dramatically across the Region, prompting public concern that the disruption could persist if repairs are delayed.

The KRG’s Department of Media and Information said electricity output had plunged from roughly 4,000 megawatts to about 1,000, cutting the Region’s 24-hour Runaki service to nearly five hours per day. The Electricity Ministry described the collapse as “80%.”

The attack capped days of tension around the field. On November 23, security forces opened fire on a drone entering the area, with additional incursions detected on November 24–25. Shortly before midnight on November 26, a drone hit a liquid storage tank, triggering a fire that was later contained. Dana Gas, the operator, confirmed there were no injuries among its staff.

The latest strike comes at a moment when Khor Mor’s role in Iraq’s energy landscape had just expanded. Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum recently announced the early completion and commercial launch of the KM250 expansion project, a $1.1 billion upgrade that boosts processing capacity by 250 MMscf/d—raising total output to 750 MMscf/d, a 50% jump. Delivered eight months ahead of schedule with financing from the Bank of Sharjah, the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and proceeds from Pearl Petroleum’s $350 million bond, the project stands as one of Iraq’s largest private-sector energy infrastructure achievements. The upgrade employed more than 10,000 workers, used over 6,000 tons of steel, and recorded 6.2 million man-hours during construction.

This expansion was expected to significantly strengthen Iraq’s electricity generation and support the KRG’s Runaki initiative—aimed at achieving an uninterrupted power supply. The timing of the strike, therefore, raised questions about whether the attack sought to undermine this rapid progress.

Stretching across 135 square kilometers with 8.2 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, Khor Mor is the backbone of the Kurdistan Region’s power system. Production has risen steadily through phased upgrades—revamps in 2018 and 2022 and a 2020 bypass project—raising output from 305 MMscf/d in 2018 to nearly 500 MMscf/d by late 2022. Additional optimization in 2023 pushed output to 525 MMscf/d in March 2025. These volumes feed the Region’s main power stations.

But repeated attacks continue to disrupt operations. A 2024 strike killed four Yemeni workers and caused a multi-day shutdown.

Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani said the latest attack targeted infrastructure serving both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, urging the federal government to take swift action.

Prime Minister Masrour Barzani condemned the strike “in the strongest terms,” warning that “the usual terrorists” must be held accountable. He again called on the United States and international partners to supply defensive systems, writing on X: “I urge our American and international partners to provide the defensive equipment necessary to protect our civilian infrastructure.”

Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said the strike was “an assault on Iraq as a whole.” In a phone call with Masrour Barzani, both sides agreed to form a joint investigative committee “as soon as possible.” Iraq’s Security Media Cell described the attack as a “treacherous” act of terrorism.

Experts interviewed by Shafaq News argue that regional competition over gas markets remains a central factor. Plans to route gas from Erbil and Duhok through Turkiye and into Europe have significantly increased the field’s strategic value. Dr. Khalid Haider said each strike “undermines the Region’s push toward gas self-sufficiency and deepens dependence on costly electricity imports,” recalling a 2,500-megawatt loss during the 2024 outage.

No group has claimed responsibility—consistent with previous incidents. The KRG has repeatedly accused Iran-aligned groups within the PMF, while Baghdad rejects the allegations.

Security expert Sarmad al-Bayat linked Iraq’s vulnerability to its lack of advanced radar systems. “Baghdad agreed with Washington to purchase six systems, but delivery has been slow,” he said, pointing to new energy agreements between Iraq, Turkiye, and Qatar as possible sources of regional discomfort.

The field’s position near disputed territories further heightens exposure. Political adviser Mahmoud Khoshnaw said many attacks originate from “security gap areas” between federal and KRG jurisdictions—zones where joint deployment agreements remain unimplemented.

These vulnerabilities are compounded by long-running disputes over oil and gas authority. The Federal Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling invalidating KRG contracts intensified tensions and was followed by several drone and rocket attacks.

A new investigative committee, supported by the US-led Coalition, will now re-examine the latest strike.

As of November 27, gas production remains suspended pending damage assessments. No timeline has been announced for restoring operations. For residents who have endured a near-total blackout for the past day, the attack raises pressing questions about whether this marks an escalation—or another phase in a broader effort to reshape Iraq’s gas future.

Despite unified condemnation from Baghdad and Erbil, the identity of the perpetrator remains contested. Kurdish government statements have previously pointed to Iran-backed “Iraqi militias,” while PMF leaders deny involvement, saying launch sites are not under their control.

A source close to decision-making circles in Erbil told Shafaq News that outlawed armed groups view the Kurdistan Region’s growing gas sector as a dual threat: “These groups believe Kurdistan’s expanding gas production and future export capacity could weaken Iran’s energy leverage in Iraq if local fields are tied to the federal grid. They also view the Runaki project, backed by a US-aligned government in Erbil, as offering a competing model for electricity management in a country where chronic outages have become symbolic of state failure.”

The strike also comes at a politically charged moment—two weeks after Iraq’s parliamentary elections, during government formation negotiations, and amid stalled talks between Kurdish parties to revive a parliament that has been suspended for more than a year. Political actors, speaking anonymously to Shafaq News, interpret the attack as a message aimed at influencing these dynamics rather than a purely tactical strike on a gas facility.

Its timing—days before the planned visit of US President Donald Trump’s newly appointed envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, an Iraqi-American businessman—has fueled speculation of a broader geopolitical signal. His appointment is seen by many as marking a tougher US posture toward Iran-aligned factions.

Hours after the Khor Mor attack, Savaya noted that “there is no place for such armed groups in a fully sovereign Iraq,” adding that the United States will fully support Baghdad in holding accountable every party involved in illegal armed activity.

He further called on Baghdad and Erbil to deepen their security coordination.

Political researcher Yassin Aziz said the nature and timing of the attack reflect “an internal or external agenda seeking to pressure the Kurdistan Region by striking its economy and infrastructure.” He warned that the incident could also widen rifts between Kurdish parties at a moment when unity is critical.

“Armed groups operating within a regional project—one that benefits from Iraq’s continued dependence on external energy suppliers—are the most likely perpetrators. “Khor Mor is increasingly positioned as an alternative to regional suppliers who use Baghdad’s energy dependence for political and economic leverage.”

Strategic expert Dr. Karzan Abdulrahman said the strike cannot be separated from overlapping political, economic, and security interests. Multiple domestic and regional actors, he noted, stand to benefit from continued destabilization.

“Khor Mor is the backbone of the Kurdistan Region’s electricity system, and has become a pressure point in disputes between Baghdad and Erbil over field ownership, revenues, and export mechanisms. Targeting it disrupts investment conditions and pressures foreign companies,” Abdulrahman added.

He also pointed to the possibility that armed groups linked to regional powers are using drones to send complex messages, exploiting the current electricity crisis and public frustration.

Abdulrahman concluded that the attacks reflect “a contest of interests extending beyond the Region’s borders,” underscoring the need for transparent investigations and stronger security measures to safeguard one of Iraq’s most vital energy projects.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.