Shafaq News

Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon, the most dangerous escalation since the 1982 invasion, is reshaping the country’s southern geography and threatening to trigger long-term demographic and political consequences. Field estimates and statements from Israeli officials indicate that, if the conflict were to stop at its current stage, nearly 10% of Lebanese territory could remain under direct or indirect Israeli control.

The war has already displaced more than 1.2 million Lebanese, according to the Ministry of Social Affairs, particularly following the escalation linked to the US-Israeli confrontation with Iran that began on February 28. The figure represents nearly one-fifth of Lebanon’s population. The Health Ministry data also indicate that approximately 13,000 people have been killed or wounded since the conflict intensified on March 2.

While Lebanon has experienced repeated waves of displacement during previous Israeli invasions and wars in 1978, 1982, 1996, 2006, and 2024, the current campaign differs in both scale and method. Entire villages and towns in southern Lebanon have been systematically destroyed, raising concerns that Israel is applying in Lebanon a model similar to the one used in Gaza.

According to field data and publicly available military assessments, Israeli forces currently exercise direct occupation or effective fire control over around 60 villages and towns across southern Lebanon. The areas, estimated at more than 400 square kilometers, include locations where residents can no longer safely return due to continuous airstrikes and artillery fire.

Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, have openly discussed plans for a buffer zone extending between seven and 15 kilometers inside Lebanese territory. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently argued that the Litani River should become the effective dividing line of the conflict zone, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir went further by publicly speaking about potential Israeli settlement plans inside Lebanese territory.

The destruction on the ground extends beyond military targets. Entire villages, including Mhaibib, Aita Al-Shaab, Kfarkela, Yaroun, Maroun Al-Ras, and Odaisseh, have reportedly been leveled. Other towns such as Khiam, Mais Al-Jabal, Blida, Houla, and Dhayra suffered near-total devastation. Human Rights Watch (HRW) and the UN human rights officer have increasingly classified such operations as potential war crimes, citing forced displacement and widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure.

Contrary to common perceptions, southern Lebanon is not exclusively Shiite. Although Shiites form the majority population in many southern districts, the region also includes Sunni Muslims, Druze communities, and Christian villages representing multiple denominations. The scale of displacement and destruction risks undermining Lebanon’s delicate sectarian and communal balance.

The Israeli military has consistently framed its operations in Lebanon as targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and personnel. However, UN humanitarian officials and field documentation indicate the impact has extended well beyond Hezbollah-affiliated areas and communities.

The senior UN humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon, Imran Riza, confirmed after a field visit to Beirut's southern suburbs that airstrikes and demolitions were causing casualties among women, men, and children, as well as displaced families, including Syrian and Palestinian refugees and Bangladeshi migrants.

An Israeli airstrike, for example, killed at least 23 people in the village of Aalmat, north of Beirut, and far from the areas in southern and eastern Lebanon where Hezbollah maintains a major presence.

UN experts noted that many strikes hit densely populated residential neighborhoods and commercial areas in central Beirut, in violation of the principles of distinction and proportionality under international humanitarian law.

Suha, a 30-year-old resident of Hasbaya, a predominantly Druze town in southern Lebanon, described the psychological strain of living near the conflict zone.

“Every night I spend in Hasbaya, I hear explosions and airstrikes hitting nearby villages,” she told Shafaq News, requesting partial anonymity. “Sometimes I can see the flashes from the strikes with my own eyes. On one hand, you feel relatively safe, but on the other hand, your people are being killed and losing their livelihoods.”

Although Hasbaya avoided the level of destruction seen elsewhere in the south, nearby roads, valleys, and commercial areas have repeatedly come under attack, forcing residents to alter travel routes and daily routines.

The WHO representative in Lebanon, Dr. Abdinasir Abubakar, also confirmed that health facilities had been directly attacked, with five hospitals forced to evacuate within a single month, and that attacks on medical workers, ambulances, and civil defense centers had accelerated the erosion of Lebanon's healthcare sector.

Amnesty International noted the Israeli military alleged —without providing evidence— that ambulances and healthcare sites were being used for military activities.

Between March 2 and May 21, Israeli attacks have killed 116 healthcare workers and injured 263 others across Lebanon, the Health Ministry reported. The strikes have affected 147 healthcare facilities during the same period, including 16 hospitals and 31 healthcare centers. The ministry's overall toll since March 2 stands at 3,111 killed and 9,432 wounded.

HRW documented that the Israeli strikes on at least nine bridges along the Litani River between March 12 and April 8 significantly limited the ability of state institutions, humanitarian organizations, hospitals, and healthcare facilities to deliver aid and provide medical care.

Ahmad Haidar, a Lebanese civil defense activist, told Shafaq News that casualties and destruction have affected nearly all Lebanese communities.

“Israel has killed people from every sect and targeted areas across the country,” he said, adding that the destruction did not only hit Shiite villages, but also Sunni villages such as Marwahin, Yarine, and Dhayra were devastated, while Beirut and its suburbs faced hundreds of airstrikes that killed Sunnis, Shiites, and Christians alike.

Field reports further indicate that several Christian-majority villages in southern Lebanon, including Rmeish, Ain Ebel, Debel, Alma al-Shaab, and Qawzah, were exposed to incursions or bombardment. Syrian and Palestinian refugees, as well as Lebanese citizens holding European and American nationalities, have also been among the casualties.

The April 8 campaign, Operation Eternal Darkness, insisted that every target hit belonged to Hezbollah. The operational reality that day told a different story. In the span of ten minutes, some 50 Israeli fighter jets delivered around 160 munitions across at least five neighborhoods in Beirut's central and coastal areas, hitting busy commercial and residential districts during rush hour and sending the city into widespread panic. By the time the smoke cleared, at least 360 people were dead and more than 1,000 wounded, the vast majority of them in areas where ordinary Lebanese had been going about their daily lives.

The conflict’s implications extend beyond Lebanon itself. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly linked military operations in Lebanon and southern Syria under a broader security doctrine aimed at preventing hostile armed groups from operating near Israel’s northern borders.

Netanyahu previously announced plans for what he described as a “security zone” stretching from Ras Naqoura on Lebanon’s Mediterranean coast to areas reaching the Yarmouk Basin and Mount Hermon in Syrian territory. He also stressed that Israel would not allow Syria’s border region to become “another southern Lebanon,” signaling support for expanded demilitarized zones inside Syria.

Military estimates suggest Israel currently controls roughly 1,200 square kilometers in southern Syria, including the occupied Golan Heights, which Israel seized in 1967 and formally annexed in 1981. Since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government, Israeli forces have reportedly expanded daily incursions across Quneitra, rural Damascus, and Daraa provinces, establishing fixed military positions and advancing to within approximately 25 kilometers of Damascus near Qatana.

Israeli strategic planning increasingly seeks to connect its operational belt in southern Lebanon with its expanding military presence in southern Syria. Officials in Israel argue the policy is “necessary to shield northern Israeli settlements and the occupied Golan Heights from future attacks.” Critics, however, warn that the strategy risks creating a permanent occupation reality across multiple fronts.

Legally, the developments raise questions over Israel’s compliance with the 1949 Armistice Agreement with Lebanon, the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria, and the UN-demarcated Blue Line. Diplomats and regional observers believe the evolving military map could impose a new negotiating framework on both Beirut and Damascus while broader regional tensions with Iran remain unresolved.

As fighting continues without a clear political settlement, concerns are growing that temporary military arrangements could harden into lasting territorial changes, fundamentally altering the strategic landscape of the Levant.

Read more: Beirut’s southern suburb emptiesovernight: Stories of displacement under fire

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.