Shafaq News
As Iraq headed to the polls Tuesday for general parliamentary elections, attention focused on turnout—a key measure of public trust in the political process. After a high 82.4% turnout in Sunday’s special vote, analysts are watching to see whether that momentum holds or gives way to disillusionment.
The results will signal whether the next parliament can close the widening gap between citizens and the state, and whether political calm can hold amid mounting public frustration and factional divides.
The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) confirmed that all logistical and technical preparations were complete. Voting opened at 7:00 a.m. across 8,703 polling centers and 39,285 stations, with over 20 million Iraqis eligible to vote.
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Turnout as a Political Barometer
Speaking to Shafaq News, political analyst Hussein al-Kanani described the special vote as a “positive indicator,” suggesting that high participation in the general vote could ease the formation of a new government.
Even if turnout drops, he added, it’s unlikely to spark serious disputes. “Political divisions are less intense than in past terms, which could lead to a faster government formation.”
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The Weight of a Boycott
Ahmad al-Yasiri, head of the Australian-Arab Center for Strategic Studies, categorized Iraq’s electorate into three groups: active voters, boycotters—led by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Patriotic Shiite Movement (PSM)—and outside opposition.
He told Shafaq News that the PSM boycott reflects internal discontent rather than rejection of the political system, clarifying, “The movement criticizes political elites, not the state itself.”
Though the boycott doesn’t affect seat allocation, it carries symbolic weight. “It signals a deepening social divide,” al-Yasiri warned. “Ignoring that could push Iraq toward instability. The political scene is fragile—one wrong move could ignite unrest.”
Al-Sadr, who withdrew from politics in 2022 and pulled 73 lawmakers from parliament, reaffirmed in March that his movement would not participate due to entrenched corruption. Analysts suggest the boycott could suppress turnout and shift the internal balance within Iraq’s Shiite political spectrum.
Read more: Iraq's political enigma: The unpredictable maneuvers of Muqtada al-Sadr
Regional Pressures, Domestic Stakes
Analyst Sabah al-Uqaili called the election a test of Iraq’s ability to maintain internal stability amid shifting regional power plays. “Iraq remains entangled in broader Middle East realignments, normalization efforts, and geopolitical restructuring,” he told our agency, pressing for a stronger, more independent parliament capable of resisting external influence and correcting the failures of the outgoing legislature.
Despite Western pressure, al-Uqaili predicted Baghdad would continue deepening ties with Tehran, citing “historical, geographic, and ideological bonds,” especially under the Shiite Coordination Framework’s leadership.
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No Quick Fixes
Speaking to Shafaq News, Assef Malhem, director of the GSM Center for Research and Studies in Moscow, urged caution against expecting rapid change, saying, “Iraq’s trajectory will remain gradual.”
“Economic constraints, social fragmentation, and regional tensions limit the space for sweeping reforms. Any future government will face these fixed boundaries.”
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.