Shafaq News

Political actors in Baghdad and across the region are racing to assess the potential implications of the recently announced US-Iran understanding, but the outlook in Baghdad remains mixed, balancing hopes of benefiting from a possible easing of tensions against caution over whether the agreement will endure or face challenges at the first regional test.

The uncertainty is compounded by Iraq’s own complex political, security, and economic landscape. The country remains deeply affected by shifts in relations between Washington and Tehran, as overlapping regional and international interests shape its stability, power dynamics, energy sector, and trade routes.

Read more: Iran and Israel exchange of missiles: What was achieved in the latest confrontation?

According to preliminary announcements, the US-Iran agreement, brokered by Pakistan, includes a halt to military operations across the region, including in Lebanon, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, the lifting of Iran’s maritime blockade, and the launch of nuclear negotiations within 60 days.

Although implementation details remain incomplete, the announcement has already begun shaping market expectations and regional calculations, signaling that its impact is likely to extend beyond Washington and Tehran to countries such as Iraq.

Imad Al-Musafir, a political analyst close to Iraq’s Coordination Framework, a coalition of mainly Shiite political parties, said any escalation or stability in the region directly affects Iraq because of its extensive political and economic ties with neighboring countries.

“The Iraqi political decision-maker needs a clear vision regarding developments in the region,” Al-Musafir told Shafaq News, adding that Iraq must employ it in a way that serves its interests without compromising national principles and constants.

In an interview with Shafaq News, Ihsan Al-Shammari, professor of strategic and international studies at the University of Baghdad and head of the Political Thinking Center, noted that Iraq could be among the countries that benefit most from an end to hostilities between Washington and Tehran.

Al-Shammari emphasized that Iraq had suffered significantly from the military confrontation and its political, diplomatic, and economic consequences. The agreement, he argued, represents an opportunity for Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s government to reorganize priorities, particularly on the political level, through a roadmap for state reform, institutional development, and a national project.

Economically, Al-Shammari noted that previous tensions, particularly those involving the Strait of Hormuz, affected Iraq’s oil revenues. However, he observed that Iraq should take broader advantage of the current easing of tensions by diversifying export routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkiye.

“Such measures could enable Iraq to export an additional 1.4 million to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. The issue is not only about increasing revenues but also restructuring the economy in response to the lessons of the recent conflict.”

Read more: Iraq to place armed factions' weapons under state control: What we know so far

On the security front, Al-Shammari said the agreement could strengthen efforts to place all weapons under state control. “There is no justification for the existence of weapons outside the state framework,” he indicated, suggesting that the government may be encouraged to address the issue of armed factions within broader understandings involving Tehran.

Al-Shammari also explained that Iraq should move “beyond traditional approaches” if it wants to maximize the benefits of the agreement and rebuild relations with both the United States and Gulf countries.

Despite the positive atmosphere surrounding the announcement, Haitham Numaan, a professor of political science at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, urged caution in assessing its implications. He told Shafaq News that it remains unclear how durable the agreement will be or whether it can be transformed into a lasting reality, adding that “the agreement remains fragile and lacks clarity.”

Al-Heeti pointed out that it is too early to draw firm conclusions about its impact on Iraq, whether positive or negative, clarifying that the next phase will be shaped not only by US-Iran relations, “but also by the American role inside Iraq and the response of Iraqi political forces to these changes amid ongoing economic pressures.”

The US agenda overseen by the US Presidential Envoy to Syria and Iraq, Tom Barrack, could prove more influential than the broader US-Iran relationship, with future developments depending largely on Washington’s policies and Barrack’s plans.

Political writer and analyst Ali Al-Baydar assessed that the agreement could provide Iraq with an opportunity that may evolve into a lasting advantage if managed effectively, and Baghdad could be among the regional countries most positively affected by the agreement because of its geopolitical position and its relations with all parties involved.

Read more: Trump's new Iraq-Syria envoy faces an Iran test Syria never posed

He estimated that developments since October 7, 2023, had subjected Iraq to simultaneous pressure from both the United States and Iran, creating political uncertainty and competing loyalties. “Any reduction in tensions could help ease domestic polarization and political divisions.”

Economically, the political analyst expected greater stability to improve the investment climate and strengthen confidence in Iraq’s economy. From a security perspective, he predicted that the agreement could reduce reciprocal attacks and limit the use of Iraqi territory as an arena for regional confrontation, “allowing security forces to focus more on priorities such as counterterrorism.”