Shafaq News- Baghdad

Iraq is marking the end of the US-led Coalition's military mission with a four-day public holiday, from September 30 to October 3, that the government has named "Sovereignty Days." Five politicians and analysts who spoke to Shafaq News described the occasion as significant but incomplete, arguing that while foreign combat forces have left, the Iraqi state has yet to establish a monopoly on arms.

The Coalition, formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, wound down its mission in Iraq on September 30. Baghdad once treated that date as the deadline for disarming the country's armed factions as well. On September 21, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi separated the two. His phased plan opens with a 90-day pause in which the factions halt attacks in exchange for assurances that US forces will not strike them, followed by a weapons handover due to end by June 30, 2027. Some factions are pushing for an even later deadline, at the end of 2027.

"Ending the foreign presence by agreement completes sovereignty on paper," said Sami Oshana, a member of parliament's Foreign Relations Committee. "Bringing weapons under state control completes it on the ground."

If the state succeeds on both fronts, Oshana told Shafaq News, no faction operating outside the law could invoke "resistance" or "security necessity" to justify its arms. He warned, however, that the military action alone cannot settle the issue. It requires a political deal that guarantees the factions a secure role in politics in exchange for the state's monopoly on force.

Completing, Not Beginning

Adel al-Ghariri, an independent politician, argues that September 30 marks the completion of Iraqi sovereignty rather than its birth. “Iraq's sovereignty was never absent. Its most visible gap was the presence of foreign forces that Baghdad itself invited in 2014 to fight ISIS,” he told Shafaq News. The next step, in his view, is ending every foreign military presence on Iraqi soil, Turkish forces included, so that the state alone decides matters of war, peace and security.

Al-Ghariri does not tie disarmament solely to the foreign presence. He calls it a national demand resting on five pillars: public opinion, the constitution, parliament, the judiciary, and religious leadership. “Shiite, Sunni and Christian religious authorities have all called for weapons to be held by state institutions,” he noted, as has the Supreme Judicial Council, Iraq's top judicial body. The legal framework, he argued, must give the factions and their members a route into official institutions, whether the security services or the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

Safaa al-Asam, a security expert, points to a contradiction in the factions' long-standing case. “They justified their weapons by the presence of foreign troops, yet the Iraqi state never described that presence as an occupation.” It rested on the Strategic Framework Agreement that Iraq and the United States signed in 2008 under then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. With ISIS reduced to sleeper cells that Iraqi forces can handle, the Coalition's mission no longer had a rationale, he said.

“Together with efforts to end the Turkish presence at Bashiqa, a base northeast of Mosul, the exit removes the factions' justification for keeping arms outside the state.” In his view, Iraq has begun tying up the loose ends of the weapons question.

Read more: Rubio's "Balkanization" warning links Iraq's armed factions to the country's unity

Sovereignty Beyond The Ground

Political analyst Ali al-Nasser warns that sovereignty cannot be measured by the departure of ground troops alone. Al-Zaidi's government has taken important steps, he told Shafaq News, but they need to go further, starting with control of Iraq's airspace: operational air-defense systems and radar, and the ability to stop any country from violating Iraqi skies. He expects the process to extend to Turkish positions, “including Bashiqa and Mount Sinjar,” if withdrawal arrangements are completed.

Nasser also argues for economic sovereignty. Iraq depends almost entirely on oil revenue, and he says diversifying the economy should show up in the 2027 budget. “That effort faces outside pressure, particularly over US dollar flows and American financial policy.”

On weapons, Nasser expects the end of the foreign presence to weaken some factions' case for keeping their arms, especially as armed groups move into politics and elections. “The hardest part concerns heavy weapons, missiles and drones. Other weapons are already registered with the Interior Ministry.” He believes the heavy arsenal could be handled gradually if the government builds more trust with the factions and with neighboring states.

One State, One Authority

Issam al-Faili, a professor of political science at Baghdad's Mustansiriya University, rejects any partial reading of the concept. Sovereignty cannot be divided, he told Shafaq News. It depends not only on the absence of foreign troops but on respect for the law and the constitution, and on the absence of any authority outside the state. “No parallel entity has the right to carve up that sovereignty, and all armed groups must answer to the prime minister as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.”

Religious and sectarian particularities deserve respect, he added, but no creed or foreign loyalty can take precedence over the state.

Al-Faili argues that the US departure removes the last justification for weapons outside state institutions, citing a proposal under which the factions' weapons and fighters would be absorbed into the PMF, with the commander-in-chief, not the armed groups themselves, deciding which weapons are handed over. The state funds these groups, he noted, so the state should decide how their weapons are used.

Resistance From Within

Political forces are negotiating with the factions over how the plan will be carried out. On September 23, al-Maliki, who heads the State of Law coalition, said the program and timetable would be announced on Sept. 30, but no such announcement had been made by publication time.

Some factions have hardened their position. On September 28, Abu Mujahid al-Assafi, security chief of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful Iran-aligned factions, whose political wing, the Hoqooq Movement, holds six seats in parliament, threatened to work to topple al-Zaidi's government if “it failed to serve the people.” He also threatened to close the crossings of countries he accused of taking part in a blockade of Iran.

He warned that if US aircraft continued to violate Iraqi airspace after October 1, the group would monitor the skies, issue warnings, and then shoot down aircraft it deems hostile.

Read more: Iraq's armed factions sit at the center of a Middle East war, experts say

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.