Shafaq News – Baghdad

As Iraq’s parliamentary elections began this morning, the method for calculating voter turnout has stirred political and technical debate. While the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) says it is following the law, experts argue the formula contains loopholes and allows “political manipulation” that inflates participation figures.

The IHEC bases turnout only on citizens who have updated their biometric cards — about 21 million Iraqis — out of nearly 30 million eligible voters. This excludes roughly nine million people from the calculation, automatically boosting the reported participation rate.

For example, if 10 million Iraqis vote, turnout would exceed 50% when measured against the 21 million updated records, but would be closer to 30% if calculated against the full eligible population.

Read more: Iraq’s voter turnout: From post-war enthusiasm to political fatigue

IHEC media team head Imad Jamil told Shafaq News that “around 29 million Iraqis are eligible to vote, but only 21.4 million have updated their biometric data,” explaining that turnout will be calculated among those updated voters. “If 15 million cast ballots, participation will appear at 75%, not 50%, because the base is 21 million,” he said.

Political analyst Mujashaa al-Tamimi told Shafaq News that Iraq’s election law, shaped by political compromises, ties turnout to updated biometric data only. “This excludes millions who did not update their records, and makes the participation rate reflect administrative compliance rather than actual political engagement.”

He added that this is why the leader of the Patriotic Shiite Movement (PSM), Muqtada al-Sadr, urged his followers to update their cards — to ensure their votes are counted and their movement’s strength accurately reflected.

In Iraq’s first parliamentary election in 2005, more than 14 million citizens voted — a 76% turnout from a population of about 27 million. By contrast, the 2021 elections saw participation drop to 41%, with the IHEC again relying only on updated records — a method that also drew criticism at the time.

Election expert Duraid al-Tamimi said, “From a technical standpoint, a voter who has not updated their biometric card since 2016 cannot be considered part of the active electorate.” He added that while some suggest using Iraq’s national ID instead, this would place voter data under the Interior Ministry, undermining the IHEC’s independence. “Biometric cards link each voter to a specific polling station, unlike the national ID system.”

Al-Tamimi noted that countries like Turkiye use national IDs but also provide online tools to locate polling centers — “a level of digital readiness Iraq has yet to achieve.”

In his opinion, voting remains “a right, not an obligation,” and while citizens cannot be forced to update their cards, those who fail to do so are excluded from turnout calculations.

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