Shafaq News

A series of ISIS attacks in and around Kirkuk between October 5 and 14 has renewed concern over the ability of small cells to exploit rugged terrain and gaps between Iraqi forces, in the first weeks after the US-led Coalition ended its military mission in Iraq.

The incidents ranged from armed attacks on security positions and surveillance equipment to roadside bombings. On October 5, militants attacked a Federal Police position in Hawija district, southwest of Kirkuk, killing one officer and wounding four. The next day, they hit a Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) position in the same village. Both times, they went after thermal cameras.

The deadliest came on October 14, when a roadside bomb struck troops inspecting the site of an Iraqi airstrike on ISIS hideouts in Wadi Zghaitoun, southern Kirkuk. It killed Brig. Gen. Ahat Yasser Khudair Hussein, communications chief of the army's 11th Infantry Division, and two soldiers. Iraqi forces have responded with search operations and airstrikes against suspected ISIS hideouts.

Weakened, Not Defeated

ISIS has not been fully eliminated, but it is at its weakest since 2014 and lacks the military and financial means to seize territory or rebuild its so-called caliphate, according to Lt. Gen. Jabbar Yawar, the Kurdistan Region's adviser on military and security affairs and a former secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs.

Since 2017, most ISIS attacks have been concentrated in Diyala, Saladin and Kirkuk, Yawar told Shafaq News, carried out by small cells of three to five members who use their knowledge of the area to stage ambushes, bombings and kidnappings before disappearing. “Such attacks demand vigilance and stronger intelligence work, but do not show that the group can regain its former influence, given the improved capabilities of Iraqi and Peshmerga forces and the changes in Iraq and Syria.”

Calls for accountability

Ahmed Dagher al-Moussawi, a member of the Iraqi parliament's security and defense committee, said the repeated attacks are "a serious security indicator" that requires a review of security and intelligence plans and of the performance of military commanders.

ISIS is trying to send a message that it still exists, al-Moussawi told Shafaq News. He called for commanders to be held accountable for any breach that went undetected or that exposed a misjudgment of the situation, and for the attacks to be investigated. Parliament, he said, should summon the commanders responsible, demand detailed reports on the breaches and set deadlines for carrying out security recommendations.

Where The Cells Operate

Most of the attacks have been concentrated in specific areas, particularly southwest of Kirkuk, where ISIS has been active before, according to security expert Sarmad al-Bayati. Their proximity to the lines dividing federal and Kurdistan Region forces (Peshmerga) lets the group exploit the complexity of the security deployment, he said, while rugged and wooded terrain offers places to hide and move.

ISIS's remaining numbers are too small to hold ground but large enough to inflict harm on forces deployed there, al-Bayati said. He called for more search operations and drone surveillance, especially over valleys, reed beds and high ground that are hard to watch continuously.

A Battle Of Intelligence

Security expert Mukhled al-Darb said ISIS remnants near Kirkuk were exploiting "weak spots" in areas that, according to him, had previously benefited from Coalition aerial surveillance before the military mission ended on September 30. He warned against reading the attacks as a return to the group's former strength, saying its “era of controlling territory is over.”

Iraq now needs to reorganize its intelligence work after the coalition's exit, expanding its sources, stepping up surveillance and setting ambushes to detect militants before they reach their targets, al-Darb said, adding that the Iraqi forces have plans to pursue ISIS and their ground readiness is high, but the current fight "is a battle of intelligence and security, not a military confrontation" in the traditional sense.

“Iraqi aircraft could partly make up for the US-led Coalition's surveillance, though the air force's readiness still needs to be completed.”

Testing The Response

Retired Maj. Gen. Jawad al-Dahlaki said Kirkuk, areas north of the Hamrin Mountains and Al-Azim, and the routes linking them to border areas give ISIS room to move and maintain supply lines. He explained that cells travel along the Zab, near Kirkuk and Erbil, through the al-Dibis and Kuwair junctions and along the Kirkuk–Azim axis, taking advantage of difficult terrain and areas too vast to garrison permanently.

Iraq has not eliminated all ISIS cells since 2017, al-Dahlaki said, and their members' knowledge of the areas where they operate remains one of the biggest challenges. “Some of the recent attacks may be attempts to test how quickly Iraqi forces respond and with what firepower, ahead of a change in tactics or targets,” he said, warning that attacks could increase in the coming period as the group takes advantage of weather and hard-to-reach terrain.

He called for better intelligence-gathering, including surveillance and interception, to locate cells and track their routes before they reach their targets.

Read more: Discover Iraq: Kirkuk, a city of oil, culture, and conflict