Shafaq News/ The "secret" visit by Iran's Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, to the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, signals the "great concern" Iran feels about Iraq as part of its vital sphere and national security standards.

Against the backdrop of recent developments in Syria, Tehran sees the need to coordinate positions to confront the "US-Israeli" project known as the “New Middle East”. According to many observers, these shifts could extend from Syria to Iran or Iraq.

This concern is reinforced by Iran's launch of "Great Prophet 19" drills last Saturday, during which "rapid response" military scenarios were implemented in the Kermanshah province, and a region on the Iraqi border.

At the same time, the Israeli military entered a state of heightened alert, "in preparation for potential sabotage operations by Iran in the coming days," according to Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Hertzi Halevi.

Israeli media reported that this decision followed reports indicating increasing internal challenges to the Iranian regime, particularly after Tehran's proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria were affected.

Israeli security sources quoted by Israeli media claimed that "changes are underway in the strategic balance of the Middle East, through both military actions and economic programs" fueling Iranian officials' concerns about the region's future and its impact on their strategic vision.

Qaani's visit to Baghdad last Sunday came amid these developments, with the objective of "exchanging views on the current regional situation and coordinating stances," according to political analyst Sabah al-Akili.

Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Akili stated that after Iran and Iraq's cooperation against ISIS, there is now a proposal to form a joint committee for information exchange and counter-terrorism that threatens the region, especially as “terrorist groups have become aligned with the US”.

Iranian officials close to Tehran have expressed concerns about the region's instability, particularly based on what they perceive as movements by what they describe as "terrorist and sectarian groups" and the "US-Israeli project" for the “New Middle East”, which may target Iraq or Iran in a potential effort to divide the region, according to al-Akili.

He also revealed that "there is a plan to partition Syria into Kurdish, Druze, Alawite, and Sunni regions, with Iraq potentially being part of this project." Al-Akili also called for unified stances to confront what he described as a conspiracy that threatens not only Syria but the entire region, explaining that "Qaani's visit came at this critical time."

Abdul Rahman Al-Jazaeri, a leader in the National Al-Kasam Movement, emphasized the importance of Qaani's visit to Baghdad for both sides, given the current complexities in the region.

In an interview with Shafaq News, Al-Jazaeri disclosed that Qaani's visit delivered messages to Iraqi resistance leaders after the Iraqi government exerted pressure on factions regarding the issue of weapons being in the hands of the state. This occurred after the visit of United Nations representative, Mohamed al-Hassan, to Iraq's top religious authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

An informed source speaking to Shafaq News said that Qaani's visit lasted only a few hours, during which he met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani to discuss regional developments.

The source revealed that Qaani assured Al-Sudani that Tehran does not want to be part of the conflict and war, emphasizing that Iran does not object to any decision regarding the future of armed factions in Iraq.

Concerning Qaani's meeting with armed faction leaders, the source noted that Qaani "stressed the importance of supporting the Iraqi government in the current phase and abiding by its decisions." This occurred during meetings in which Qaani and faction leaders discussed regional security developments, particularly in Syria, and their effects on the resistance axis.

In an analysis by the Iraqi Political Thinking Center, led by Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, there is mention of an Iranian attempt to "develop plans to spare Iraqi armed factions further losses, particularly after the recent stance of the leader of the Al-Hikma Movement, Ammar al-Hakim."

Al-Hakim had said in a speech last Friday that the region is undergoing transformations that require caution and vigilance, preparing for any sudden changes that might threaten Iraq's security and stability, and its core values.

The Political Thinking Center's analysis suggests that demands for dismantling armed factions and restructuring the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) could pose a significant risk to Iran's influence in the region. These demands have caused a deep division within the “Coordination Framework”, with opposition to dismantling armed factions likely outweighing the support for it.

The analysis concludes that one of Qaani's objectives was to mend divisions within the Coordination Framework and present a unified stance against what Iran perceives as US and Israeli pressure on Iraq.

The analysis also estimates that Tehran is highly concerned about measures related to tracking its financial and economic assets in Iraq, which could cut off a major resource for Iran. Additionally, the potential collapse of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel presents a significant risk, possibly making it one of the topics Qaani addressed in Baghdad.

As US President Donald Trump nears the start of his second term, the Political Thinking Center's analysis considers preparing for Trump's approach to Iran as one of Tehran's top priorities. Therefore, Iran is seeking closer communication with its allies, particularly Iraq's armed factions.

The analysis predicts that Qaani may have received a message from Syria through Iraq following the visit of the head of Iraq's intelligence services to Damascus and his meeting with the transitional phase leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

It also speculates that Qaani's visit may be part of preparations for the upcoming visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani to Tehran, where he is set to meet with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

According to Al-Sudani's media office, the visit will include discussions on bilateral relations and ways to strengthen them, following the visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshekian to Baghdad in September, as well as ongoing regional developments.