Shafaq News
Iraq’s new government is taking shape under a heavy shadow: Washington and Tehran are both watching, both pulling, both asserting influence—despite public claims of friendship and respect for Iraq’s independence.
US President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, delivered a clear warning: the United States will not tolerate foreign interference in Baghdad’s political corridors. Savaya’s statements, issued days before a planned visit to the capital, mark a new phase in the battle for influence.
“The United States has long portrayed itself as a friend of Iraq, committed to its independence and development,” Savaya noted in previous remarks. Yet analysts point to sanctions, energy restrictions, and legislative pressures that tell a more complicated story—one in which American influence is tangible.
In recent comments, Savaya emphasized that the US “will not allow any foreign interference in the formation of the new Iraqi government,” stressing that Washington is “closely following” the process. Analysts quickly read between the lines: this message was aimed squarely at Iran.
Tehran answered with its own message—just as direct. Iranian officials dismissed Washington’s warnings and accused the United States of being the real source of instability in Iraq. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi underscored that Iran “respects Iraq’s political independence” and engages only at Baghdad’s request, pointing to ties that long predate the American presence and cannot be reduced to interference.
The tone hardened even further. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei charged that Washington is seeking to influence Iraq’s internal affairs, portraying recent American positions as attempts to heighten tension around the formation of the new government, stressing that Washington’s actions reveal a continued effort to shape outcomes from a distance.
Read more: Iraq between two fires: Tehran and Washington eye Baghdad’s post-election phase
Shadow Power
Iranian analyst Ali Akbar Borzanoni described Tehran’s response to US warnings as “natural and expected,” stressing that it does not shake the “fundamental principle” of non-interference in selecting a prime minister or pressuring political forces.
He added that Iran seeks “normal and balanced relations” with Baghdad, focusing on trade, culture, energy, and infrastructure, noting that Iraq’s stability is “a shared regional interest.”
Yet Iran’s influence is concrete. On November 11, Iraq concluded its sixth parliamentary elections since 2003, with a voter turnout exceeding 56%. Official results released by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) redrew the map: Shiite parties now hold 187 seats, Sunnis have reached 77, and Kurds secured 56.
Within that Shiite bloc, 148 belong to the Coordination Framework (CF)—the Shiite political alliance currently steering Baghdad's government—and roughly 80 lawmakers are aligned with Tehran. Key players in this network are hard to ignore. The State of Law Coalition (E’tilaf Dawlatal-Qanoun), led by former PM Nouri Al-Maliki, reached 29 seats; Sadiqoon Movement, led by Qais Al-Khazali, claimed 27; Hadi Al-Amiri’s Badr Organization secured 21; Ammar Al-Hakim’s National State Forces Alliance (Quwa Al-Dawla Al-Wataniyah) holds 18; and Hossein Moanes’ Huqooq (Rights) adds six more. These are not just lawmakers—they are levers of influence, channels through which Tehran can shape decisions even while publicly emphasizing non-interference.
The first test comes with the selection of the next prime minister. Despite the 80 lawmakers aligned with Iran, the largest parliamentary bloc belongs to caretaker PM Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (Al-Ima’ar Wal Tanmiya). While Washington has not openly endorsed him, analysts see US approval lurking in the background—especially compared to Al-Maliki, who has long counted on Iran’s backing.
Read more: Indecisive victory: PM Al-Sudani's second term faces Shiite balancing act
Inside the CF, however, unity is far from guaranteed. Some factions openly question Al-Sudani’s reappointment. Alaa Al-Hadadi of the State of Law Coalition said that his party, along with Sadiqoon, Badr, and Huqooq, oppose extending his term, accusing him of drifting away from their influence and moving closer to regional actors like Turkiye and Qatar.
Al-Hadadi added that Al-Sudani has shown willingness to engage with Washington on potential disarmament talks and is leaning on advisors skeptical of Tehran-aligned factions. The premiership has become a clear window into the broader power struggle: both Tehran and Washington are exerting influence, and for now, the outcome remains very much in play.
Beyond political alliances, Tehran has a hand in Iraq’s security architecture through the PMF—a mix of armed factions equipped and backed by Tehran. Coordination Framework parties and PMF-linked lawmakers actively lobby to shape legislation and government appointments, demonstrating that influence does exist.
Iran also wields soft power, funding religious institutions, media networks, and charities aligned with its political vision, subtly shaping public opinion and parliamentary priorities across the country.
Read more: raq's new political equation: Armed groups' gains put pressure on US
Sanction Ceiling
Meanwhile, Iran expert Mehdi Azizi doubts Washington will ever fully step back. He points to US interference in elections, especially among Sunni parties, where “financial and political support” has been sought to tilt results.
He also highlights legislative battles. The PMF Authority Law, widely backed by Iraqi lawmakers, stalled in the previous parliament because Washington opposed it. That, he said, “illustrates the tangible effect of external influence on Iraq’s legislative and political outcomes.”
Azizi notes that the US role extends beyond politics. Over the past years, Washington imposed sanctions on Iraqi organizations linked to Iran. Baghdad was blocked from importing electricity from Iran, and efforts to tap Turkmenistan gas were stymied because the pipeline runs through Iranian territory.
These moves, part of Washington’s “maximum pressure” policy, show that US influence extends deep into Iraq’s economy, shaping budgets, energy decisions, and even local business calculations.
American diplomatic engagement adds another layer: US officials routinely meet party leaders, tribal figures, and provincial governors to shape coalitions and parliamentary alliances, exerting influence without formal legislation. Azizi adds that US companies—particularly in energy and reconstruction—also give Washington indirect leverage in policy outcomes.
“Iraq is a central element in regional power balances,” he said. “It’s unrealistic to expect the United States to step away completely.”
Read more: Energy crisis now political: US halts key Iraqi gas deal
The Last Outlet
From Washington, political researcher Ramadan Al-Badran sees Iran weakened and isolated. Losing leverage in its nuclear file and affiliated factions, Tehran views Iraq as “the last outlet” to ease pressure. The US, he says, is working to “drain this leverage” through diplomacy and political pressure.
Al-Badran warns that Iraq’s next government could either support Iran or strip it of its remaining diplomatic and factional influence over the next four years. At the same time, he said the Trump administration is “in a difficult position,” presenting Iraqis with a choice: stability, but only if they distance themselves from Iranian influence.
Political analyst Nabil Mikhael, also based in Washington, says US influence is clear. “The United States aims to limit Iranian influence,” he said, “while Tehran seeks to strengthen allies within Iraq’s political system.”
Mikhael points to Washington’s interventions in legislation and policy—even when Iraqi lawmakers support a measure, if it runs counter to US interests, it can be blocked. Meanwhile, Iran’s grip through parliamentary alliances, ministry appointments, and armed factions ensures its voice is never absent from government decisions.
In Baghdad, two powers deny involvement, two narratives compete for legitimacy, and Iraq’s political arena remains the space where both claims are tested—not by statements, but by the pressure felt behind them.
Read more:Iraq’s PMF Law: A battle for state control
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.