Shafaq News

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and former premier Nouri al-Maliki, both senior figures within the Coordination Framework (CF), are heading into the November 11 parliamentary elections as direct rivals, in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests in Iraq’s Shiite political landscape.

Once part of the same Iran-backed coalition, the two leaders now command separate political camps, with rising tensions between them defining the struggle for influence over Iraq’s largest sect.

CF Fractures

Following the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, Shiite groups that had long been marginalized rose to prominence, shaping Iraq’s post-war political order. To consolidate power, these groups formed alliances that culminated in the 2021 creation of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Shiite factions with strong ties to Iran that opposed Muqtada al-Sadr’s call for a majority government.

Although the CF emerged as a dominant bloc, deep-seated rivalries and competing ambitions have continually undermined its cohesion. The upcoming elections are set to test the coalition’s ability to remain a unified force.

Read more: Explainer: Iraq’s Coordination Frameworkand Its Rise to Power

A House Divided

Analysts note that the rift between al-Sudani and al-Maliki reflects both personal and structural tensions within the CF. Al-Sudani’s departure from the State of Law bloc in 2019, his growing popularity, and his expanding alliances have been perceived as challenges to al-Maliki’s long-standing influence.

To consolidate his position, al-Sudani recently launched the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, bringing together seven political forces: his Euphrates Movement (al-Furatain); the Bilad Sumer Gathering led by Labor Minister Ahmed al-Asadi; the National Coalition of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi; the Karbala Innovation Alliance headed by Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi; the Ajyal Bloc of MP Mohammed al-Sayhoud; the National Solutions Alliance led by Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji; and the National Contract Party of Faleh al-Fayyadh.

Within the CF itself, al-Sudani enjoys backing from Ammar al-Hakim’s al-Hikma Movement and former prime minister Haidar al-Abadi’s al-Nasr Coalition, reflecting support from factions that favor institutional politics over military leverage.

By contrast, al-Maliki, who leads the State of Law Coalition, is aligned with parties that command powerful armed factions — including Qais al-Khazali of Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Hadi al-Ameri of the Fatah Alliance — positioning him as the candidate of the CF’s more hardline elements.

Read more: CF on the brink: Disputes divide Iraqi bloc

Competing Claims

Al-Sudani’s supporters argue that his leadership has strengthened Iraq’s stability, pointing to his ability to keep the country out of the June Israeli–Iranian 12-day conflict and prevent broader escalation. MP Abdel Hadi al-Saadawi told Shafaq News that “the prime minister has managed to forge broad coalitions that reflect the will of various political currents, boosting his chances for a second term.”

Baghdad-based observer Ihsan al-Kanani added that al-Sudani’s active diplomacy and strong ties with Washington have elevated his profile, raising concerns within parts of the CF about his growing independence.

Al-Maliki’s camp, however, insists the incumbent cannot secure re-election. Mohammed al-Hamami, a member of the State of Law bloc, told Shafaq News: “There is no chance for al-Sudani to stay on for another term. The political forces will not allow it, and al-Maliki’s coalition will be decisive in forming the next government.” He added that current disputes are aimed at mobilizing support and have not yet reached the point of an irreparable clash.

Other Shiite factions are pushing for a compromise. Ali al-Jubouri of al-Hikma observed that “Iraq’s next phase cannot be left to one coalition or one man. The country requires a government that reflects balance and inclusion.”

Read more: Iraq's Shiite factions: a landscape of division

The Ultimate Test

Al-Maliki retains strong support in southern provinces such as Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Karbala, Najaf, and Babil, while al-Sudani’s appeal has grown in central and northern regions. Their rivalry will be most visible in Baghdad, where both are competing under the same ballot number. With 71 out of 329 parliamentary seats, the capital is widely regarded as the key to electoral success.

The CF, once a unified bloc, is now fielding multiple lists: al-Maliki’s State of Law, Qais al-Khazali’s Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Ammar al-Hakim’s al-Hikma, and others. Leaders have hinted at regrouping after the vote to form a consolidated bloc depending on the results, but the election outcome will determine the balance of power.

Observers are closely watching whether State of Law can surpass its previous 11-seat tally in Baghdad or if al-Sudani’s Euphrates Movement can expand beyond a single seat.

The Independent High Electoral Commission has scheduled the elections for November 11, 2025, with campaigning set to begin on October 8 and continue until 24 hours before the vote. Approximately 30 million Iraqis out of a population of 46 million are eligible to cast their ballots.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.