Shafaq News- Baghdad

Twelve years after Iraqi forces retook Jurf al-Sakhr (also known as Jurf Al-Nasr) from ISIS, the strategic area southwest of Baghdad remains largely beyond the full control of state institutions, held back by armed influence, economic interests, and unresolved disputes over land and the return of its residents, analysts and officials told Shafaq News.

The area returned to the spotlight after a confidential government intelligence report obtained by Shafaq News pointed to years of suspected oil smuggling there, prompting Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to order an investigation. On Saturday, he removed nine officials and referred those implicated to the judiciary after the probe found evidence of smuggling.

Baghdad has recently taken limited steps to expand its oversight of Jurf al-Sakhr. Government committees entered the area in August and again this week, but such visits have remained unusual and required high-level security and political coordination, reflecting the limits of routine state access.

A Strategic Crossroads

Jurf al-Sakhr sits at a junction of roads linking Baghdad with the country's south and west, political analyst Hussein al-Kinani explained. When ISIS held it, the group threatened the capital and the nearby city of Musayyib, cut roads and endangered pilgrims.

According to al-Kinani, the Counter-Terrorism Service, the Federal Police and a brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are deployed there, a security arrangement tied to unresolved problems over residents' return, reconstruction and the status of farmland.

Shafaq News has previously reported that more than 100,000 people remain unable to return to Jurf al-Sakhr and surrounding communities more than a decade after the area was retaken from ISIS. Displaced families are spread across Erbil, Al-Sulaymaniyah, Saladin, Baghdad and Babil, while earlier Ministry of Migration and Displaced Persons figures put the number of families still displaced at around 6,000.

“No money has been allocated to rebuild war-damaged neighborhoods or clear farmland,” al-Kinani said, adding that about 70% of the land is agricultural and was leased under state contracts, but the Finance Ministry has canceled some leases and not renewed them for their former holders, complicating ownership. “Some residents are reluctant to seek a return because of legal and security fears or suspicions about past activities.”

Read more: Jurf Al-Sakhar: A decade on, Iraq's displaced still barred from return

A State Within A State

Political researcher Abdul Qader al-Nayel said Jurf al-Sakhr has become "a mini-state within the state" since 2014. As a southern gateway to Baghdad linking the capital with Babil, Karbala and al-Anbar near the international highway, it gives whoever controls it influence over roads and supplies, he said.

Al-Nayel linked the status quo to economic interests, including the seizure of farmland that is rented out or sold outside the law, activities suspected of being tied to oil and fuel smuggling, training camps and unofficial detention sites. “Bringing residents home and settling property claims would expose these abuses,” he argued, saying that some villages had been renamed, original homes demolished and families from other provinces settled there.

“Any attempt to impose control by force risks an armed confrontation with powerful factions, making political understandings the government's more likely route,” al-Nayel warned.

He called for an end to the factions' military guardianship over the area, for the army and Federal Police to take over security, for land and property to be returned to their legal owners, and for security guarantees for returning residents with the involvement of human rights and international bodies.

Political Point-Scoring

Hassan Fadaam, a leader in the al-Hikma Movement in Babil, part of the ruling Coordination Framework, said Jurf al-Sakhr draws more political and media attention than other liberated areas facing similar obstacles, because of its symbolic location near Baghdad, Karbala and Babil. “The issue is sometimes used as a tool of political pressure or to win public support at the expense of its humanitarian side,” he said, urging that it be handled through official institutions so that innocent displaced residents can return under the rule of law.

From Al-Anbar, Abdullah al-Jughaifi, an adviser to the provincial council's security and defense committee, said the issue had taken on a sectarian character because most residents are Sunni and the area was once used as a launchpad for militant attacks, which he said should not justify keeping people from their homes.

Successive governments backed off from confronting the armed factions, al-Jughaifi said, adding that according to circulating reports, “the area has shifted from a military role to a hub of economic activity, including farming, fish farming and suspected oil smuggling.”

Al-Jughaifi said he believes al-Zaidi intends to resolve the issue without an armed clash, insisting that Jurf al-Sakhr must come under the authority of the commander-in-chief rather than groups outside state institutions. He also called for the area's original name to be restored.

Read more: Satellite report flags suspected oil smuggling in Iraq’s Jurf al-Sakhr