Shafaq News – Washington

A full withdrawal of US forces from Iraq by the end of 2026 appears unlikely, and disarming the country’s armed factions remains impossible without weakening Iran’s influence, a political expert noted to Shafaq News on Sunday.

According to Paul Davis, a professor of Middle East studies, President Donald Trump seeks to resolve the “Iraq file,” yet his strong opposition to Iran, combined with the dominance of Tehran-aligned factions in parliament, makes a complete US pullout improbable.

With around 2,500 US troops still stationed in Iraq, Baghdad and Washington finalized an agreement last month laying out a roadmap for the full withdrawal of American forces by September 2026.

Davis also linked prospects of disarmament to the formation of a new Iraqi government, which he expects will face long delays. “The first step is forming a government, which does not appear likely before mid-2026,” he noted, adding that “how and when this government takes shape will determine any progress on disarming or integrating armed factions.”

When asked whether any current Iraqi government has the political or military capacity to disarm deeply entrenched armed groups, Davis responded, “The short answer is no,” estimating the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) population at 150,000 to 250,000 members.

“Without curbing Iran’s political and financial influence, meaningful disarmament is unlikely,” he warned.

Davis’ remarks come amid an intensifying internal debate over weapons outside state control. Last week, several Iran-aligned factions, including Kataib Imam Ali, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, Ansar Allah Al-Awfiya, and Kataib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, indicated readiness to support limiting arms to the state. Supreme Judicial Council head Faiq Zaidan noted that those groups had responded positively to guidance urging cooperation with state institutions and a shift toward political activity once armed action is no longer justified.

Other factions, however, rejected that approach. Kataib Hezbollah maintained it would not disarm, arguing that state sovereignty and security must first be ensured through the withdrawal of US, NATO, and Turkish forces, while framing armed resistance as a legitimate right.

For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington D.C.

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