Shafaq News- Baghdad

Iraq's Dawn Crackdown anti-corruption campaign has become the first major test for Prime Minister Ali Falih Al-Zaidi, with its outcome likely to shape not only the future of his government but also the country's post-2003 political order, Foreign Policy said on Friday.

The report said efforts intensified after the arrest of former Deputy Oil Minister Adnan Al-Jumaili, whose cooperation with investigators reportedly led to arrest warrants for dozens of officials and lawmakers over alleged corruption in oil contracts and money laundering. Security forces have since raided the homes of suspects, while Iraq's Supreme Judicial Council announced the recovery of more than $106 million in embezzled funds in late June.

However, the crackdown has also fueled questions over whether it represents a comprehensive effort to dismantle corruption networks or a political realignment.

Read more: Iraq anti-corruption sweep: What we know so far

Foreign Policy outlined three possible scenarios. The first envisions broadening the probe to all those implicated and recovering assets, a move that could strengthen Al-Zaidi's public standing but risk destabilizing his administration if senior political figures are targeted. The second are similar to previous anti-corruption drives, with only a limited number of officials convicted, potentially eroding public confidence. The most likely outcome, according to the magazine, is a gradual expansion of the inquiry while avoiding direct confrontation with major power centers, allowing the government to preserve its political balance.

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