Shafaq News- Paris
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday forecast a global oil surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2026, with supply averaging 105 million bpd as Middle Eastern exports recover faster than demand despite continued attacks on oil tankers.
In its November Oil Market Report, the agency reversed its earlier projection of a deficit, noting that production had exceeded consumption for the first time since the Iran war began on February 28. The recovery has been supported by increased output from OPEC+ and other producers, with some Gulf tankers reportedly crossing the Strait of Hormuz with their tracking signals switched off to avoid attacks.
To ease shortages, particularly in diesel markets, another 71 million barrels from an emergency reserve release pledged by IEA member countries in March will become available by the end of February 2027, including 15 million barrels of diesel.
The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with supply surpassing demand for the first time since the war in Iran began. But tight supplies of refined products like diesel & ongoing trade disruptions continue to weigh on markets. More ⬇️ https://t.co/iGtW2E3226
— International Energy Agency (@IEA) November 13, 2026
Production in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana is expected to increase by 1.6 million bpd this year. In Iraq, crude output rose from 4.06 million bpd in September to 4.6 million in October, according to the IEA's OPEC+ data.
Meanwhile, OPEC reported that the alliance pumped 41.23 million bpd in October, up 2.04 million from the previous month and equivalent to 97% of prewar levels.
For 2027, the IEA projected worldwide supply would rise by 6.6 million bpd to 108.1 million bpd, including an additional 5.3 million bpd from Gulf producers. The expected surplus stands at 3.8 million bpd, down from 3.94 million bpd in its previous forecast.
In October, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 2.04 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 41.23 mb/d, according to available secondary sources. #OPECMOMR https://t.co/4lMT1dUOwd
— OPEC (@OPECSecretariat) November 12, 2026