Shafaq News – Baghdad

Above-average rainfall is forecast across Iraq and northern Arabia in December 2025 and January 2026, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Iraqi meteorologist Sadiq Attiya said the projection aligns with earlier models indicating a moist air system moving from the eastern Mediterranean and northern Red Sea.

He noted that several Mediterranean low-pressure systems are likely to form during the season, bringing cold, humid fronts that could increase rainfall in southern, central, and western Iraq.

Iraq has suffered four major droughts since 2017, with the most recent described by the Ministry of Water Resources as the worst since 1933. The World Bank ranks Iraq among the world’s five most climate-affected countries, with nearly one-third of its arable land lost over the past three decades.

The Iraq Green Observatory attributes the crisis to reduced rainfall, upstream water restrictions from Turkiye and Iran, and worsening climate change. Water reserves have fallen to just 8% of normal levels, while the Tigris and Euphrates rivers reached historic lows — drying marshes and wetlands, wiping out over 70% o f livestock, and leaving nearly 40% of farmland at risk of desertification.

Read more: From drought to saltwater: Iraq's deepening water crisis