Shafaq News- Rome

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Tuesday that the escalating Middle East conflict could push global hunger to record levels in 2026, as prolonged instability threatens energy markets and the broader world economy.

In a new analysis, the agency projected that nearly 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) if the conflict continues through mid-2026 and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, adding to the 318 million people already facing severe hunger worldwide.

WFP recalled that global hunger reached historic levels during the 2022 crisis linked to the war in Ukraine, when 349 million people experienced surging food prices and supply disruptions, warning that current tensions could trigger a similar shock.

Although the confrontation centers on a major energy hub rather than a key grain-producing region, the agency noted that the impact could still be significant because energy and food markets are closely connected, saying that higher fuel costs increase transportation, fertilizer, and agricultural production expenses, which in turn drive food prices upward across international markets.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau cautioned. “Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”

The agency also highlighted disruptions to global shipping, including a near standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and growing threats to maritime routes in the Red Sea, developments that have already pushed up the cost of energy, fuel, and fertilizer.

WFP projections indicate that sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia face the greatest exposure because of heavy reliance on imported food and fuel. The analysis forecasts a 21% rise in food insecurity in West and Central Africa, a 17% increase in East and Southern Africa, and a 24% surge in parts of Asia. Meanwhile, Sudan, which imports about 80% of its wheat, could face growing hardship as staple prices climb, while Somalia, currently enduring severe drought, has already recorded increases of at least 20% in some essential commodities since the conflict began.

The situation is unfolding amid major funding shortfalls for humanitarian operations, WFP also warned. The agency has already reduced assistance in several regions, leaving vulnerable communities without support and raising the risk that worsening food insecurity could push some fragile states closer to famine.