Shafaq News
The preliminary results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections placed Al-Ima’ar wal Tanmiya (the Reconstruction and Development Alliance), led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, in first place. But the coalition failed to secure the sweeping mandate needed to form the next government on its own, reigniting questions about power balances within the Shiite political arena and the influence of regional and international actors on the shape of the coming government.
Al-Sudani strengthened his standing as a key player in the Shiite landscape, yet several factors continue to complicate negotiations. These include the boycott by the Patriotic Shiite Movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr, the proliferation of competing Shiite lists, and the renewed weight of Sunni and Kurdish blocs.
Observers concur that the vote—held with turnout surpassing 55 percent—did not yield a decisive majority. Instead, it redrew political fault lines among the Coordination Framework parties, the Sunni Taqaddum (Progress) party led by Mohammed al-Halbousi, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani.
“Cautious Stability”
Ahmed al-Yasiri, head of the Australian-Arab Center for Strategic Studies, told Shafaq News that the high turnout does not necessarily signal greater political awareness but rather a “collective desire to avoid chaos and preserve stability.”
He noted that voters “did not choose a bloc capable of settling the competition or forming a comfortable majority,” emphasizing that no party can advance without alliances.
According to al-Yasiri, surging regional tensions—especially between Iran and Israel—pushed Iraqis to prioritize stability over political experimentation.
He cautioned that losing blocs with armed wings “could complicate the parliamentary scene if they feel excluded from political gains,” underscoring the need to partially integrate them into governance to avoid escalation with the United States or entanglement in regional agendas.
Challenges of Government Formation
Haitham al-Heeti, professor of political science at the University of Exeter, stated that the results “do not grant any side a sweeping mandate,” noting that al-Sudani’s coalition secured only 45 seats, far below projections of 70 to 100.
Speaking to Shafaq News, he added that the results point to a “fragmented parliament with dozens of small blocs,” making coalition-building difficult. “Despite leading the results, al-Sudani will need to align with many smaller groups with differing agendas.”
The Question of the Largest Bloc
Fahd al-Jubouri, a senior figure in al-Hikma Movement (The National Wisdom), said the Coordination Framework has imposed no veto on any candidate and has yet to discuss the identity of the next prime minister.
He told Shafaq News that the Framework’s combined results make it “the largest Shiite parliamentary bloc and capable of selecting the next prime minister, since it collectively secured around 126 seats, with al-Sudani’s coalition holding 45 of them.” According to al-Jubouri, renewing al-Sudani’s term remains on the table pending internal consultations.
In a related statement, Mokhtar al-Musawi of the Badr Organization (Fatah Alliance) said the Framework will formally declare itself the largest bloc after results are ratified, adding that appointing the next prime minister “is not necessarily tied to the Reconstruction and Development Coalition.”
Earlier, a political source told Shafaq News that Framework leaders agreed no winning list can detach itself from the alliance, and that the next prime minister will be chosen based on professional criteria and regional and international acceptability—not seat numbers alone. The source confirmed the incoming prime minister will come from within the Coordination Framework.
Another source did not rule out a second term for al-Sudani unless a major faction moves against it, referencing the position of State of Law leader Nouri al-Maliki. Discussions also addressed possible engagement with Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement, which boycotted the election.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.