Shafaq News– Tehran/ Washington/ Muscat

At a moment of heightened regional fragility, indirect talks between the United States and Iran in Muscat have reopened a long-dormant diplomatic channel, offering a limited but notable attempt to contain escalation amid mounting fears of a wider military confrontation.

The first and second rounds of nuclear negotiations concluded in Muscat between a US delegation led by Envoy Steve Witkoff and an Iranian team headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with assessments from both sides pointing to an understanding to resume talks in the coming days.

Speaking after the meetings, Araghchi said the discussions addressed Iran’s interests and the “rights of the Iranian people,” characterizing the atmosphere as positive and confirming agreement on continuing negotiations within a clearer framework. He cautioned, however, that a degree of mistrust persists between the two sides, noting that the process remains at an early stage.

While expectations of a comprehensive agreement remain tempered, most readings converge on the view that the Muscat talks are aimed more at managing the crisis and preventing escalation than at delivering a rapid breakthrough. The talks unfold against the backdrop of rigid red lines, sustained US pressure, and Iran’s insistence on what it frames as non-negotiable sovereign rights.

Despite the charged environment of threats and counter-pressure, analysts argue that the very convening of the talks reflects a mutual, if cautious, interest in avoiding war and exploring political off-ramps from an increasingly volatile nuclear standoff.

Avoiding War

Radhwan Qassem, founder of the ProGene Center for Strategic Studies and International Relations, said the core significance of the talks lies in the fact that they took place at all. “This indicates that the United States and President Donald Trump do not want to go to war with Iran, and that Tehran, in turn, does not seek such a war,” Qassem told Shafaq News.

He argued that both sides are aiming for negotiations that remain positive and eventually reach “safe ground,” pointing to Washington’s acceptance of Muscat as the venue —rather than Turkiye— as a diplomatic gain for Iran. Qassem also noted what he described as US openness to enrichment levels above those set in the 2015 nuclear deal, which capped enrichment at 3.5%.

Qassem said Washington may be inclined to prolong the negotiating process, particularly as the US midterm elections approach. “Trump does not want a military confrontation at this stage, given its potential negative impact on his electoral interests and on the Republican Party,” he said.

In his view, the Muscat round helped push back the immediate risk of war and eased Israeli pressure for a military option, reflecting a reduced US appetite for confrontation with Iran. Regardless of near-term outcomes, Qassem said Iran has already secured political gains by buying time to rebuild confidence and lay the groundwork for deeper negotiations that could eventually avert a return to military escalation.

Sovereign Rights

From Tehran’s perspective, political analyst Ali Akbar Barzouni said Iran entered the talks “to defend its sovereignty and legitimate rights, not from a position of weakness.”

Barzouni told Shafaq News that Iran’s stance rests on several fixed pillars, foremost among them its insistence on uranium enrichment as a sovereign right guaranteed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Any future agreement, he said, must explicitly recognize that right, with Iran maintaining that its nuclear program is purely peaceful.

On Iran’s missile program, Barzouni said Tehran considers its capabilities a “red line” and not subject to negotiation, viewing them as an integral part of national defense. Iran’s regional alliances, he added, fall within its security policy and cannot be placed on the negotiating table.

Lifting economic sanctions remains a central Iranian demand, Barzouni said —not symbolically, but in tangible terms— alongside guarantees that would prevent a repeat of Washington’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal. He stressed that Iran does not seek war, but remains prepared for all scenarios should escalation be imposed.

A sharper Reading

Political analyst and Iran expert Saeed Shawardi offered a more confrontational assessment, arguing that the talks began amid an intense US “psychological war,” marked by threats of withdrawal and sustained media and political pressure intended to influence Iranian decision-making.

Shawardi told Shafaq News that Tehran responded by setting firm boundaries from the outset, rejecting concessions and insisting that Washington recognize Iran’s nuclear rights and engage based on parity rather than dictates.

He said the United States failed to draw Iran into negotiations over non-nuclear files such as missiles, defense capabilities, or regional alliances. Tehran, he noted, rejected these demands outright, limiting the talks to the nuclear issue and insisting on an indirect format, while also determining Muscat as the venue after Washington had preferred Turkiye, moves he described as US concessions extended only to a counterpart with leverage.

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According to Shawardi, the current phase involves internal assessments following the initial rounds, with further talks likely in the coming days. He said Iran remains unwilling to relinquish its nuclear rights but is prepared to offer guarantees to the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that its program will remain peaceful. In return, Tehran demands the full lifting of sanctions and an end to what it sees as coercive US policies. Shawardi warned that continued pressure, threats, and interference would further diminish prospects for an agreement.

“Serious” Talks

Iranian state media reported on Friday that negotiations in Muscat are likely to continue for several days, describing the atmosphere as “more serious” than in previous rounds. Iranian television said that any joint statement would represent a step forward.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry had earlier announced the start of the first round of talks, while media reported that Araghchi met Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi ahead of the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) was expected to join the Muscat discussions.

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington wants the talks to address Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, support for armed groups across the region, and its domestic governance. Iran, by contrast, has insisted that Araghchi and Witkoff discuss the nuclear file only, saying it entered the talks “from a position of strength” and to reach a fair and mutually acceptable understanding that preserves its dignity.

For now, the Muscat channel appears less a path to swift resolution than a mechanism to prevent escalation from spiraling out of control —an uneasy but deliberate pause in one of the region’s most enduring and consequential standoffs.

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Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.