Shafaq News
The formation of the National Political Council, a broad Sunni coalition announced shortly after the release of final election results, has reshaped Iraq’s political landscape and overturned prevailing expectations inside Baghdad and beyond.
For months, political actors and analysts — including senior Sunni officials quoted by Shafaq News — had argued that unifying the Sunni forces into a single decision-making bloc was “far off reach.” Fragmentation, personal rivalries, and structural competition made any framework modeled on the Shiite Coordination Framework appear politically unworkable.
Yet in a sudden realignment, the leading Sunni alliances have joined a new umbrella body presented as a platform to “safeguard Sunni entitlements” in the next government and coordinate positions during post-election negotiations.
Fragmentation as the Defining Trait
The Independent High Electoral Commission confirmed turnout surpassed 56% in Iraq’s 2025 elections. According to the final results, Shiite parties collectively secured around 187 seats, Sunni blocs 77, Kurdish parties 56, and minority quota seats 9.
This distribution prompted renewed debates inside Sunni circles about the need for a unified front during government formation. But throughout October and early November, key Sunni forces conveyed to Shafaq News that such a structure was unlikely.
The hesitancy toward unity also stems from earlier attempts to consolidate the Sunni political field. Over the past years, major Sunni blocs experimented with the broad-based Al-Siyada Coalition, which brought together nearly all major Sunni actors under one umbrella. At the time, internal disagreements, personal rivalries, and conflicting leadership styles—particularly tensions involving Al-Halbousi—gradually weakened the coalition. These disputes ultimately triggered a wave of withdrawals and a return to fragmentation, reinforcing the belief among many Sunni leaders that unifying the components was institutionally difficult and politically unstable.
This legacy of breakdown shaped the initial skepticism surrounding the post-2025 election contacts to form a new unified Sunni vision.
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A senior source from Taqaddum — led by Mohammed Al-Halbousi — acknowledged at the time that contacts were underway to build “broad understandings,” yet he described Al-Azm, led by Muthanna Al-Samarrai, as the “most difficult partner,” with significant unresolved disputes.
Similarly, Taqaddum official Ahmed al-Jubouri said alliances with Hasm and Al-Siyada were more probable, while unity with Al-Azm was “not expected for now.”
Analyst Yassin Aziz went further, stating that Al-Halbousi’s centralization tendencies made it difficult for him to lead a collective Sunni decision-making structure. He argued that unity would require Al-Halbousi to operate “within a genuine team-based framework similar to the Shiite Coordination Framework,” a shift he deemed unlikely.
A Sudden Break in the Pattern
Despite these earlier assessments, Sunni leaders announced the National Political Council, an umbrella coalition that brings together major blocs previously divided by years of political rivalry.
The move follows several rounds of undisclosed meetings and pressure from within the Sunni political class to avoid entering the government-formation phase, weakened or fragmented. According to Shafaq News sources, intensified contacts after the election results pushed leaders to reassess the cost of division, especially given the commanding seat count secured by Shiite parties and the delicate balance between the PUK and KDP on the Kurdish side.
Multiple Sunni actors described the decision as a “strategic necessity.” Others admitted the new council emerged from a mutual recognition that divided bargaining would diminish Sunni influence in the distribution of top state positions.
Why the Shift Occurred Now
According to political insiders, several factors accelerated unity efforts:
1. Government Formation Pressure
Sunni blocs recognized that entering negotiations separately would reduce their leverage vis-à-vis the Shiite Coordination Framework and Kurdish parties.
2. Competition Over Entitlements
Rival Sunni leaders feared that internal fragmentation could allow external actors to define their share of key positions, including the speakership, ministries, and governorates.
3. Regional Messaging
While no public statements confirm it, political advisers told Shafaq News that regional partners encouraged Sunni unification to avoid repeating the post-2018 and post-2021 fragmentation.
4. Electoral Realities
With 77 seats divided across multiple blocs, Sunni leaders faced the possibility of being overshadowed by Kurdish coordination or intra-Shiite consensus.
These dynamics created what one senior Sunni official described as “a rare alignment of necessity,” pushing rivals who once dismissed cooperation to join the National Political Council.
Reactions Across the Sunni Landscape
Taqaddum
Al-Halbousi’s bloc is presenting the new council as a tool to “protect Sunni representation” and ensure that Sunni entitlements are not sidelined during the cabinet negotiations.
Al-Siyada
Khamis Al-Khanjar’s alliance, despite long-standing disputes with Al-Halbousi, joined the new structure — signaling a pragmatic shift aimed at preserving political influence.
Al-Azm
The most surprising development is the participation of the Al-Azm Alliance, previously considered the “hardest partner” due to its clashes with Taqaddum. Al-Azm officials told Shafaq News the council is “a temporary but necessary framework.”
Independents and Local Leaders
Smaller Sunni groups have cautiously welcomed the council but expressed concerns about dominance by larger blocs.
Does the Council Really Solve Sunni Divisions?
Political analyst Yassin Aziz, who previously said Sunni unity was “unlikely,” now views the council as “a functional arrangement rather than a genuine merger.”
He told Shafaq News that the council “papers over divisions for the sake of government formation,” adding that its durability will be tested when negotiations begin over cabinet portfolios and parliamentary leadership roles.
The announcement of the National Political Council marks an unexpected but decisive strategic shift in Iraq’s Sunni political landscape. Whether this new structure delivers lasting cohesion or merely a temporary negotiating front remains uncertain. But for now, Sunni leaders have entered the post-2025 government-formation phase with a clarity of purpose not seen in years.
Read more: Iraq’s 2025 Elections: Old lines, new margins
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.