Shafaq News / Experts caution against the peril of reverting to the Sainte-Laguë method for allocating parliamentary seats in provincial or parliamentary council elections, highlighting how it runs counter to the public's inclination to reject this law and the predominance of parties.

The move back to Sainte-Laguë constitutes a "significant setback" in the political forces and parties' pledges to reform and a serious breach of democracy, which could lead to protests and a boycott of the future election, according to experts.

On the other hand, political blocs believe that the interest favors returning to this method, as it allows large, small, or medium blocs to be represented in provincial councils or the Iraqi parliament.

In this regard, specialists believe that the recent elections, which were held according to small or medium districts, caused an imbalance in the political system and the voting process, as well as in the return of regionalism and tribalism to the House of Representatives.

A major setback

Ihsan al-Shammari, the head of the Center for Political Thinking, viewed the return to the Sainte-Laguë method as "a major setback in the commitments of political forces and parties and their slogans to reform," especially because this law no longer corresponds with the aspirations of the new elite forces and that even the voters are seeking a law that can propel their representative to the parliament."

"The process of approving this law by the State Administration Coalition represents a serious regression in democracy" because it "reflects the extent of concern for the traditional leaders in the issue of their inability to first hold and control their representatives, especially under the electoral districts law, and the other thing is their desire to continue to dominate the political arena."

Back to the streets

While noting that "this law works for the survival of parties after the recent elections witnessed a clear change in the electoral map and showed the importance of preserving the citizens' vote," political analyst Munaf al-Moussawi does not completely rule out the possibility of new demonstrations if the authorities decide to re-adopt the Sainte-Laguë method.

He continued that reintroducing this method "is a partisan goal that contradicts the popular desire that rejects the hegemony of parties, which may increase the crisis of trust and boycott of the future elections."

Rejection calls

Political affairs researcher Sheikh Safaa al-Baghdadi called on current parliament members to "reject any amendment to the electoral law, as it served a large segment of independents and emerging movements, and if a governorate becomes one district, they will not have a presence in the next parliament."

Al-Baghdadi indicated during his interview with Shafaq News Agency, "The political class wants to return to the political scene. After the Coordination Framework lost in the last elections when the multi-district law was implemented, and did not get enough votes, they now are trying to reinstate the previous law."

Contentious issues

According to Hassan Fada'am, a member of the Coordination Framework, "the main concern is the issue of multiple districts and one constituency for the provincial council and the House of Representatives elections. There is also controversy over the top winner and the electoral list system, and the rate of vote counting between 1.4, 1.7, or 1.9."

"Using the national card or issuing another card for the elections is up for debate regarding the voter card. Additionally, there is a disagreement between Sunni and Kurdish forces on Kirkuk's election law and voter registration process."

"It would be challenging to have elections in 2023 and more likely to postpone them to 2024 if political parties could not agree on a single solution for these divergent viewpoints within a month."

Final decision

Independent political analyst Saad al-Muttalibi stated that "the political blocs represented by the House of Representatives see the interest with the return to the Sainte-Laguë method, as it allows large, small, and medium blocs to have representation in provincial councils or the House of Representatives."

"Given that the most recent elections led to an imbalance in the political system and the voting process, as well as the re-emergence of regionalism and tribalism in the House of Representatives, the political blocs have decided to revert to the Sainte-Laguë method in the House of Representatives."

Moreover, the House of Representatives completed the first reading of the proposed law on the third amendment to the Provincial and District Councils Elections Law No. (12) of 2018, submitted by the Legal Committees and the regions and governorates not organized in a region on Monday.

The amendment was made in order to carry out the Federal Court's legislations Nos. 43/Federal/2021, 159/Federal/2021, and 103/Federal/2019, which were made to hold free and fair elections for the Iraqi Council of Representatives and provincial councils that are not organized by region, and ensure the participation of all social segments.

After the Council of Representatives agreed on November 4, 2013, on a clause mandating the allocation of seats to the contending lists within the Iraqi electoral law, the Sainte-Laguë method was used to distribute parliamentary seats in Iraq.

The Sainte-Laguë method was invented in 1912 by the French mathematician André Sainte-Laguë, whose purpose was to distribute votes to electoral seats in multi-seat districts and reduce the defects between asymmetry in votes and the number of seats obtained.

It is a disadvantage that benefits large parties at the expense of smaller blocs, while the modified Sainte-Laguë version intended to distribute seats more equitably.

This formula was used for the first time in the Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2014, through which parliamentary seats were distributed in Iraq, as well as provincial council elections for the same session.

As a result, small lists won seats in the Iraqi parliament and provincial councils, and generated chaos and division among political blocs and coalitions, due to their fluctuation of positions.