Shafaq News – Baghdad

Since Iraq’s first elections after 2003, the dispute over the “largest parliamentary bloc” has been the most decisive and contentious issue in every government formation. The concept — born from a vague constitutional text and competing interpretations — has evolved into a political weapon that dominant factions use to claim the right to form the cabinet and secure the premiership.

As Iraq heads toward its November 2025 parliamentary elections, this old conflict has reemerged at the heart of the Shiite Coordination Framework, which is facing deep internal divisions over who should lead the next government and how to ensure control of the “largest bloc” — the constitutional key to forming it.

Repeated meetings among Framework leaders have failed to produce a consensus, leaving tensions simmering and raising concerns of a renewed political confrontation that could mirror the deadlocks of previous years.

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Between Law and Power

Analysts note that the dispute goes far beyond legal semantics. It cuts into Iraq’s core power structure, shaping alliances that often transcend sectarian and ethnic boundaries. Each side seeks to maximize its influence within the executive branch: some parties argue that the “largest bloc” must be determined after the elections through parliamentary coalitions, while others insist it should be the bloc that wins the highest number of seats at the polls — a divergence that often triggers fierce post-election battles over numbers, loyalties, and shifting alliances.

Rifts Inside the Coordination Framework

A senior source within the Coordination Framework told Shafaq News that internal disagreements over forming the next government and choosing a prime minister have intensified, with no final decision reached despite weeks of meetings.

“The Coordination Framework aims to resolve the government formation more easily than in previous elections,” the source said, “especially after the Patriotic Shiite Movement -PSM [led by Muqtada Al-Sadr] withdrew from the race and is not fielding candidates. Some leaders see this as a chance to avoid past political complications.”

Al-Sadr had announced in March 2025 that his movement would not participate in the elections, citing “the spread of corruption and the corrupt,” and warning that “Iraq is breathing its last.” He had earlier withdrawn from politics in June 2022, calling for the resignation of his 73 lawmakers and vowing not to engage again “so as not to be complicit with the corrupt politicians.”

According to the same Framework source, discussions have included the “guaranteeing third” option and possible alliances with Kurdish forces to pass the name of the next prime minister. Yet the idea failed to gain consensus because of sharp internal divisions.

The term “guaranteeing third” — commonly used in Iraqi political discourse — refers to a parliamentary alliance that controls more than one-third of the 329 seats (at least 110 lawmakers). Such a bloc holds enough weight to block key constitutional decisions, including electing the president of the republic or granting confidence to a new government, effectively serving as a “blocking third” in parliamentary negotiations.

The rift, the source explained, revolves around three main factions: one loyal to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, another led by Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition, and a third backed by Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq. “These disagreements have created noticeable tension within the Framework,” the source added, “amid fears that some factions — expected to win significant seats — could form alliances with major Sunni and Kurdish blocs to shape the next government independently.”

The source also noted that no agreement has yet been reached on who will represent the “largest bloc,” predicting that this issue will likely be deferred until after the elections, when the real parliamentary balance of power becomes clear.

Read more: Al-Sadr shockwave: New uncertainty ahead of Iraq’s parliamentary poll

The Constitutional Context

Iraq’s 2005 Constitution grants the right to form the government to the largest parliamentary bloc, stating in Article 76(1): “The President of the Republic shall charge the nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc with forming the Council of Ministers within fifteen days of his election.”

Yet nearly two decades later, disagreement continues over the meaning of “largest bloc.” Some interpret it as the list winning the most seats; others view it as a coalition formed after the elections that commands a majority in parliament.

On March 25, 2010, the Federal Supreme Court clarified that the “largest bloc” could be either: A pre-election coalition that competed under one name and number and won the most seats; or a post-election alliance formed in parliament between two or more lists that together constitute the majority.

That ruling shifted the right to form the government away from Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqiya List won 91 seats in 2010, to Nouri al-Maliki, whose State of Law Coalition secured 89 seats but later built a broader parliamentary alliance.

The Key Challenge After the Elections

Within the State of Law Coalition, Haider al-Lami believes the “largest bloc” issue will be the central challenge following the 2025 elections.

“This matter will define the political struggle among the winning forces,” al-Lami told Shafaq News. “The Coordination Framework is currently the frontrunner in resolving this matter, given its powerful and influential components.”

He noted that there is “a near consensus within the Framework on the need to handle this file realistically, ensuring political stability and constitutional formation of the government.”

Discussing the “guaranteeing third,” al-Lami said this option remains on the table as a possible solution if disputes over government formation or position distribution escalate, though it has not been formally adopted. “Resorting to it will depend on the level of consensus or division after the elections.”

He added that the upcoming elections will be among the “most exceptional” since 2003, given the intensity of competition and polarization. “The results may produce unexpected alliances that reshape Iraq’s political scene.”

Al-Lami recalled that in 2021, State of Law MPs Alaa Nsaif and Atwan al-Atwani had filed a lawsuit before the Federal Supreme Court to recognize the Coordination Framework as the largest bloc. The court dismissed the case a month later, confirming the Sadrist bloc (recently labeled as PSM) as the largest after it won the highest number of seats.

Read more: Iraq’s 2025 Elections: Revised law reshapes the path to power

The Framework Will Remain the Guaranteeing Third

Inside the Framework, Aqeel al-Rudaini, a member of the Victory Alliance (Al-Nasr), expressed confidence in its political weight.

The Victory Alliance, led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, announced its withdrawal from the November elections, while remaining active in broader political discussions within the bloc.

“The Coordination Framework will remain the decisive force in Iraq’s political equation during the next government formation,” he told Shafaq News, describing it as “the guaranteeing third.”

Al-Rudaini added that “there are signs Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani may eventually separate from the Framework.” However, “even if alliances form outside it, no group will be able to form a government without coordination with or support from the Framework.”

Commenting on reports of a potential tripartite alliance between al-Sudani, Kurdish, and Sunni parties, al-Rudaini said these reports are not confirmed, stressing that the Framework will remain the political heavyweight and stabilizing force in Iraq, regardless of new alignments after the elections.”

Post-Election Alliances Will Define the Largest Bloc

From the Sunni camp, Ahmed al-Jubouri of the Taqaddum Party, led by former parliament speaker Mohammad Al-Halbousi, shared a different perspective.

“The question of the largest bloc will continue to pose a political challenge even after the elections,” al-Jubouri told Shafaq News. “Its formation depends on alliances created after the results are announced and is not necessarily linked to pre-election arrangements.”

He denied reports of any prior agreement between Taqaddum and the Coordination Framework, stressing that any understandings on this matter will only become clear once the final results and new alliances are known.

Al-Jubouri added that the 2025 elections could bring changes in seat distribution and coalition structures, keeping the issue of the largest bloc open for negotiation. For him, the post-election dialogues will be decisive in shaping the next government and defining parliamentary alliances.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.