Shafaq News / In a region scarred by years of wars and displacement, climate change and water scarcity have become yet another threat for fragile contexts in Middle East and North Africa. In this region, populations’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change is limited, thereby aggravating their overall vulnerability.

The region is already overwhelmed by displacement crises, the ruinous effects of climate change may push millions towards further displacement as a result of water scarcity, drought and extreme weather.

Over the last few years, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has been researching the impact of climate change and water scarcity on rural and displaced communities in the region. In four countries researched – Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Libya – climate change, combined with displacement and conflict, is exacerbating existing suffering.

Water and agricultural infrastructure has in many cases been partially or completely destroyed due to conflict, rendering countries in the region more vulnerable to climate change. But scaling up climate financing to fragile and conflict-affected countries, and efforts to address climate impacts on displacement have been mostly ignored in past UN climate change conferences and agreements.

As world states come together for the annual UN climate change conference in the UAE, an ambitious climate financing and adaptation plan must prioritise support for conflict affected and displaced populations to overcome what will be a growing crisis across affected contexts, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.

A few dozen tall wooden poles stand around a parching pond in this orchard. Two men wander about, inspecting the strong trunks that used to be date palm trees, which Al-Faw in southern Iraq was once renowned for. Higher temperatures and lower quantities of water have wiped off the riches of this land, year after year.

“Some, like me, are forced to stay because we cannot afford to leave, but we are all close to giving up farming,” says Aziz, 65, who has farmed all his life. He laments the fact that 55,000 families have quit farming altogether. “There is very little for us here but hardship,” adds his wife, Haleema. “And with each year, it gets worse.”

As Iraq recovers from two decades of conflict, the country’s agrarian sector, the second largest, undergoes a trial of its own. Tumultuous weather prevails, with drought and sweltering heatwaves sweeping across the country last summer. Over the past few years, these conditions have created disastrous results for Iraq’s agriculture. Crop yields have depleted, the agriculture market started to disfunction, social schism has widened, and secondary displacement continued. Drought has reversed any progress.

Secondary displacement

NRC’s recent research reveals how climate change in Iraq is impeding the economic recovery of communities affected by conflict and precipitating risks of secondary displacement. Adverse climate conditions have also impeded access and functionality of market systems, exacerbated social tensions, and increased risks of secondary displacement.

As many as 60 per cent of farmers struggle with water shortages and reduced crop yield. While many return home after years of displacement from conflict, others consider moving out of their villages because of extreme drought. “Now, the bullets have stopped but we are still scared of losing our home,” Abu Rashid, an Iraqi farmer, says.

Across the border to the west, and deep into Syrian territory, lies Maskanah, a village that separates the Syrian Desert from the fertile plains by the Euphrates. Ezzat inherited his farm from his forefathers and despite conflict and increasingly dry conditions and growing drought, he insists that “I will stay here and cultivate my land no matter how hard it gets.”

But the younger generation of Maskanah have been forced away in search of a better life. Those who stayed behind have tried to find ways to adapt. Some have ditched their traditional crops for the more drought-resistant watermelon. This is because the Euphrates water levels have dwindled over recent years, contributing to the spread of cholera and other water borne diseases

Syria has faced a multitude of challenges: conflict, displacement, economic crises and weakened infrastructure and coping systems. Drought and the resulting decline in agricultural output after years of water, fuel and electricity shortages is yet another challenge facing the fragile country. NRC’s recent survey of over 460 people showed that a quarter of farmers had suffered crop loss of over 90 per cent in the past two years. This has led to a drop in yearly income for 99 per cent of farmers surveyed. Drought is exacerbating the decline of their livelihoods.

In search of alternatives

Some of the alternatives taken on by farmers that came out in NRC’s survey reflect a dearth of options. In addition to suspending farming, some farmers have tried to dig deeper wells in search of water. Others have switched to rainfed crops. Many farmers have stopped raising livestock because they couldn’t afford water or feed.

In the same survey, farmers presented more practical solutions that could help them recover. These include loans, fertilisers, seeds and solar-powered equipment. Water, by far, remains the most pressing need in a vicious cycle of inflation and shortages. While some of the solutions do not necessarily reflect a long-term roadmap that the country needs to address the root causes of drought, they can indeed provide some relief.

With almost half of the rural population reliant on agriculture as the principal source of income, the collapse of infrastructure and irrigation systems impede Syria’s chances of recovery. Drought has displaced 1 in 5 people NRC interviewed, and should this pattern continue, the arable space, already at risk, will continue to shrink.

The harrowing events unfolding in Gaza have ignited global outcry over Israel’s disproportionate attacks on civilian areas. It has brought renewed attention to the entrenched injustice of Israel’s decades-long occupation, exerting control over nearly every facet of Palestinian life. In the West Bank, the persistent cycle of violence involving settlers and soldiers continues unabated.

Beneath these visible violations lies a less conspicuous but critical issue—Israel’s occupation and the expansion of settlements that have constrained the West Bank’s water resources. Israel's control over Palestinian access to water extends to denying permits for projects aimed at repairing or installing new water infrastructure.

The stark deprivation of basic Palestinian rights is captured in statistics released by Israeli human rights group B’Tselem: while the average Israeli settler enjoys an allocation of 247 litres of water daily, a Palestinian residing in a community without access to a water network receives a mere 26 litres per day, just over one-tenth of the Israeli amount. Even for those connected, the average allocation stands at 82.4 litres, merely one-third of what an Israeli settler receives.

Israeli policies stifle Palestinian efforts to build resilience and adaptation programmes against climate change impacts. Simultaneously, Israeli settlements, constructed in violation of international law, continue expanding onto Palestinian lands, triggering environmental hazards amid a complete absence of accountability.

The expansion of settlements and the ensuing settler aggression have led to the loss of livestock and income, contributing to the forcible displacement of entire herding communities. This has imposed an economic toll alongside health and security risks on Palestinian herding communities.

With the unchecked growth of Israeli settlements comes an uptick in the discharge of wastewater and dumping of solid waste, exacerbating environmental degradation. The devastating consequences are evident on Palestinian soil: ruined crops, contaminated drinking water, and heightened health risks. Israeli-imposed restrictions on Palestinian land use in Area C of the West Bank, which remains under complete Israeli control, severely limit Palestinians’ capacity to tackle climate change challenges.

To counter this, donor states must urgently provide political and financial support for Palestinian construction of large-scale infrastructure and projects designed to adapt to climate change, particularly in Area C, comprising more than 60 per cent of West Bank lands.

While this alone would not end Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, its full implementation would grant Palestinians control over their growth and development. Ultimately, this could help in the progressive realisation of their fundamental human rights.

This year’s Storm Daniel in Libya has killed and displaced thousands across Libya’s fragile eastern region. In Libya, which like Iraq and Syria, has been through years of conflict and displacement, climate change takes stark forms. An academic assessment suggested that a 1.2 degrees Celsius increase meant that an event of this magnitude was 50 times more likely and 50 per cent more intense. Libya is located in the climate change ‘hot spot’ area in the southern Mediterranean, which means it is more vulnerable to climate change impacts in the future.

The country’s decimated infrastructure and inadequate warning systems have also left it exposed to aggravated flood risks as evident in the collapse of the two dams in Derna.

The country also faces challenges of water stress. With no rivers, Libya has relied on groundwater aquifers, absent of a comprehensive water management policy. Over the past few months, NRC has been documenting the impact of water shortages on agriculture and domestic use.

An urgent shift required

The Middle East and North Africa region is the most water stressed in the world, and one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. And yet, the region is the smallest recipient of climate financing in the world, and conflict and displacement countries that are extremely vulnerable to climate change are almost excluded from financing and climate action.

As COP 28 is underway, we call for urgent action for fragile contexts in the region:

Donors must increase climate financing for adaptation, loss and damage and resilience building in the region and ensure financing reaches displacement-affected communities in fragile and conflict settings.

National climate change and water management planning must include conflict and displacement-affected people in shaping discussions related to their future.

Countries in the region must invest in climate change and water management action plans, with the support of international donors.

Early warning systems and anticipatory action for drought and floods must be improved across municipality and national levels to allow for disaster risk reduction.

States must remove policy and practices that reduce the ability of communities to mitigate and adapt to climate change and its impacts.

(NRC)