Shafaq News

Two decades after Iraq’s first democratic elections, the ballot box no longer carries the same promise it once did. What began in 2005 as an emblem of national renewal has, over time, become a symbol of eroded faith in the political system.

Voter participation has fallen from nearly 80 percent in the first parliamentary vote to around 41 percent in 2021, revealing not only public fatigue but a widening gulf between citizens and those who govern them.

From 2005’s Euphoria to Steady Decline

The December 2005 parliamentary elections, held amid international optimism and domestic relief after the fall of Saddam Hussein, drew the highest participation in Iraq’s modern history. Almost eight in ten eligible voters cast their ballots, braving security risks in hopes of shaping a new order based on pluralism and representation.

That initial enthusiasm proved fragile. By 2010, participation had dropped to roughly 62 percent, reflecting growing disillusionment as sectarian parties consolidated control. In 2014, amid a relative improvement in security following the civil conflict, turnout slipped again to about 60 percent. The sharpest drop came in 2018, when less than half of registered voters went to the polls — a turning point that revealed deep disconnection between Iraqis and their political elite.

2018: The Turning Point

The 2018 elections were meant to mark stability after the defeat of ISIS. Instead, they exposed the fragility of Iraq’s democratic engagement. Nationwide participation fell to 44.5 percent — the lowest since 2005 — and Baghdad recorded an even steeper decline, averaging only 37 percent.

In southern provinces, frustration with corruption, unemployment, and failing public services depressed turnout further. Basra and Maysan hovered near 40 percent, while Najaf and Karbala — historically centers of political mobilization — also saw noticeable drops. The mid-Euphrates belt, once a barometer of Shiite political vitality, registered lower engagement than in any previous cycle.

In Sunni-majority areas, the picture was bleaker. Years of displacement, destroyed infrastructure, and limited campaigning left turnout at 30 percent in Al-Anbar and 34 percent in Saladin. Nineveh, still recovering from the war’s devastation, managed roughly 40 percent. Even in the Kurdistan Region, traditionally known for strong participation, apathy took hold: Al-Sulaymaniyah fell below 40 percent, Erbil and Halabja hovered near 50, and only Duhok approached 55.

Technical challenges — especially with the newly introduced electronic voting system — compounded the frustration. Power cuts, mismatched biometric data, and restrictions on displaced voters prevented thousands from casting ballots, reinforcing doubts about the system’s reliability.

2021: Disillusionment Deepens

When Iraq held early elections in October 2021 in response to the 2019 protest movement, the hope was that a new vote would rebuild legitimacy. Instead, it underscored the erosion of public confidence. Nationwide participation ranged between 41 and 43 percent — the lowest in Iraq’s post-2003 electoral history.

Baghdad again saw turnout close to one-third of its electorate. Southern and central provinces that once anchored Shiite political life barely exceeded 45 percent. Basra recorded about 43, Najaf 41, and Wasit and Karbala roughly 46. In Sunni provinces, turnout remained modest: 42 percent in Nineveh and 48 in Saladin. In the Kurdistan Region, Al-Sulaymaniyah’s participation again dipped below 40 percent, while Erbil and Duhok hovered near 50.

This time, the reasons were less logistical than psychological. Many young Iraqis who had led the protest movement boycotted the elections, convinced that the process was designed to reproduce the same elite under new banners. Independent candidates, despite legal openings under the revised election law, faced intimidation, limited funding, and entrenched patronage networks. “Nothing WILL CHANGE” became a phrase echoing across provinces, capturing the despair of a generation that had lost faith in the ballot as a tool for reform.

Why Iraqis Stopped Believing in the Vote

The decline in participation stems from intertwined political, social, and institutional failures that have unfolded over two decades.

Iraqis have grown disillusioned with a political order that recycles power among the same coalitions. Corruption, unfulfilled reform pledges, and the perception that elections determine positions but not policies have drained public faith. Each administration has promised to combat graft and improve services; few have delivered tangible change.

In addition, millions of people displaced by war — particularly after 2014 — faced obstacles to registration and access to polling centers. In 2018, out of nearly two million internally displaced persons, only around 285,000 voted.

Calls for abstention, both political and popular, have further weakened turnout. Sunni parties largely sat out the 2005 elections. In 2021, many activists and independents withdrew in protest. The later decision of the Sadrist movement to boycott the 2023 provincial polls deepened the sense that even major factions saw little value in participation under existing conditions.

Iraq’s proportional representation system — reinstated through the Sainte-Laguë formula — favors established blocs and discourages new entrants. Political competition often occurs within elite circles rather than between distinct social visions. For many Iraqis, the system feels less like democracy and more like rotation among familiar faces.

The Stakes for 2025

The next parliamentary elections, scheduled for 11 November 2025, will test whether Iraq can reverse this trajectory of political fatigue. The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has pledged greater transparency, biometric verification, and enhanced monitoring to restore credibility. It also aims to expand outreach to displaced and first-time voters, particularly among youth who make up more than 60 percent of Iraq’s population.

Political blocs, meanwhile, are recalibrating their strategies. The Shiite Coordination Framework, Kurdish parties, and Sunni alliances all recognize that legitimacy now hinges not merely on seat counts but on voter confidence.

Read more: Iraq’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections — What You Need to Know

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.