Shafaq News
Iraq’s healthcare system is under growing strain. In the country’s crowded public hospitals, the pressure is no longer measured only in numbers, but in waiting rooms packed beyond capacity — where doctors often see more than 150 patients a day and specialist appointments can take weeks, if not months, to secure.
Rapid population growth is placing mounting pressure on Iraq’s health sector, stretching its infrastructure and pushing demand for hospitals and primary care centers to new highs, amid structural gaps that have accumulated over decades.
Those pressures are reflected in key indicators. Iraq has fewer than 1.4 doctors per 1,000 people, well below the World Health Organization’s benchmark of 2.3. Hospital bed density stands at around 1.3 beds per 1,000 people, compared with a regional average of nearly two beds, while bed occupancy rates in major urban hospitals frequently exceed 90%, particularly during peak periods.
Against this backdrop, the Iraqi government is racing to craft long-term strategies that balance population growth with healthcare capacity, aiming not only to improve quality of life but also to position public health as a pillar of economic growth.
The challenge has become more urgent following the latest population census, which put Iraq’s population at 46 million, growing at an estimated 2.3% annually. Around 60% of Iraqis are aged between 15 and 32, with a median age of just 21 years, making Iraq one of the youngest countries in the region.
This demographic dividend could power development if properly invested in, but risks becoming a burden if planning falls short.
Already, this youthful population is reshaping healthcare demand. Mental health indicators show rising stress levels among young people, while road traffic injuries — a leading cause of hospitalization — exceed 1,000 deaths annually, disproportionately affecting those under 35. At the same time, non-communicable diseases are being diagnosed earlier, with a growing share of cases emerging before the age of 40.
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The Massive Overhaul
Prime Ministerial financial adviser Mudhir Mohammad Saleh frames the response as part of a broader economic vision.
The government, he explains to Shafaq News, is tackling these pressures through an integrated strategy embedded in the government program and Iraq Vision 2050, with health positioned as both a social priority and an economic necessity.
Central to that approach is expanding healthcare infrastructure, with dozens of new hospitals and medical centers planned for densely populated areas, adding thousands of beds to a system that currently struggles to keep pace with demand. Health spending, which accounts for roughly 4–5% of GDP, is set to rise as part of this effort.
Equally important is accelerating digital transformation. Authorities are working to link medical records across facilities, at a time when fewer than 30% of public health centers currently operate fully digitized systems. The aim is to improve planning accuracy, reduce duplication, and enhance spending efficiency.
The shift toward digital health is also designed to strengthen data-driven decision-making, allowing officials to track disease prevalence, patient flows, and service gaps across provinces, while directing limited financial resources more effectively.
Another pillar focuses on redistributing healthcare workers to reduce regional disparities. Outside Baghdad and major cities, some provinces have less than half the national average of specialists per capita, forcing an estimated one in three patients to seek treatment outside their home province.
To address access and affordability, the strategy includes expanding a national health insurance programme and targeted support for low-income families, particularly as out-of-pocket spending still accounts for nearly 60% of total health expenditure — one of the highest rates in the region.
“These policies aim to create a balance between population growth and the health sector’s capacity,” Saleh explains, while prioritizing the health and skills of productive youth to secure sustainable economic and social development.
Health investment, he adds, is increasingly viewed not as a cost, but as an economic imperative, given productivity losses linked to untreated illnesses, chronic diseases, and early workforce exits.
Mapping the 46M
At the planning level, the response has taken a more structural form.
Speaking to Shafaq News, Planning Ministry spokesman Abdul Zahra Al-Hindawi points to the 2023 launch of the “National Population Policy Document,” a framework built around 11 pillars covering health, education, housing, youth, women, vulnerable groups, and climate change.
Health-related priorities within the document focused on strengthening primary healthcare, reducing mortality among children under five, and raising life expectancy, while expanding preventive care to ease long-term pressure on hospitals.
Recent indicators already showed progress. Life expectancy has risen to 72 years for men, up from 69, and to 74 years for women, compared with 71 previously. Under-five mortality rates have also declined steadily over the past decade, reflecting gains in vaccination coverage and maternal care.
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Yet officials acknowledged that longer lives also bring new pressures. Chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease now affect more than one-third of adults, consuming an estimated 40% of total health spending.
To absorb rising demand, the program targets expanding hospital bed capacity and upgrading service quality through new healthcare projects, particularly in provinces experiencing rapid population growth.
The policy also links health planning to climate resilience. Extreme heat, water scarcity, and air pollution have contributed to rising respiratory illnesses, with heat-related cases increasing sharply during summer months, placing additional seasonal strain on emergency services.
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A double-edged challenge
Economist Mustafa Al-Faraj describes Iraq’s demographic surge as a “double-edged sword.”
With the right planning, he argues, the country can turn its youthful population into an engine of growth. Without it, population growth becomes a structural burden.
Iraq’s population, he notes, roughly doubles every 35 years — a pace that demands carefully designed policies to channel human capital into productive sectors beyond oil, which still accounts for more than 85% of state revenue.
High youth unemployment — estimated at over 25% — carries indirect health costs of its own, fueling mental health pressures, delaying family formation, and eroding productivity, dynamics that ultimately feed back into rising demand for public services.
Speaking to Shafaq News, Al-Faraj calls for activating tourism, industry, and agriculture to better align population growth with economic opportunity, easing persistently high youth unemployment and reinforcing the link between economic diversification and sustainable health outcomes.
Breaking the Cycle
Despite increased investment, the health sector continues to face workforce shortages in key specialties, compounded by the emigration of skilled professionals. Thousands of Iraqi doctors are estimated to be working abroad, while domestic training pipelines struggle to keep pace with demand.
At the household level, out-of-pocket spending remains high, particularly for medications and specialized treatment, underscoring the urgency of expanding insurance coverage and regulating private healthcare costs.
Read more: Iraq's fee-for-service crisis: Citizens pay more while receiving less
Officials and experts converge on one conclusion: without sustained investment, institutional reform, and economic diversification, Iraq’s population growth risks outpacing service expansion — turning a demographic advantage into a lasting strain rather than a driver of development.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.