Shafaq News/ Iraq's efforts to navigate its complex geopolitical landscape are increasingly evident as it seeks a balance between maintaining strong ties with the United States and accommodating Iranian influence within its borders. While Iraq requires robust international support to confront any potential resurgence of ISIS, the government faces the delicate task of managing relations with both the US and Iran, according to a report from the American Media Line news agency.

Five years after the global coalition's decisive victory over ISIS in Baghuz, Syria, which marked the end of the group's territorial control in Iraq, the country remains mired in challenges. Despite reclaiming significant territory and restoring stability in areas like Mosul by July 2017, Iraq is grappling with the repatriation of 1.1 million displaced individuals, many of whom remain in refugee camps or have been resettled due to ongoing local conflicts.

Omar al Nidawi, a Middle East analyst, highlighted to Media Line the ongoing difficulties, “In Sinjar [Iraq], Turkey and local militias, which are considered to be affiliated with the PKK, are still fighting. Other places in southwest Baghdad are still under the control of the militias, and those areas are practically depopulated. People are not allowed to go back home, and they make up about 3% of Iraq’s population.”

Based on the report, the repatriation efforts are hampered by unexploded munitions, widespread destruction, and pollution from previous ISIS activities. Additionally, Iraq faces severe economic instability, with over 90% of its revenue reliant on oil. Al Nidawi explained, “If oil prices were to drop to $60 a barrel, Iraq is going to be in deep trouble. It will be impossible to pay all the necessary state services as well as people’s wages.” He further noted, “The country’s economy is still very weak... Without real growth, especially within the private sector... it is almost impossible for the government to employ all the people in need.”

Corruption also plagues Iraq, with Urban Coningham, a Research Fellow at RUSI, noting, “Corruption is almost entirely taking hold of the Iraqi government and civil service. This applies to the Kurdish region as well.”

Although ISIS has not regained power in Iraq, its influence persists globally, with growing strength in regions such as the Sahel in Africa and Afghanistan. Al Nidawi remarked, “In Iraq, the terrorist group is weaker than ever,” attributing past gains to a combination of the Syrian civil war, lack of US support, and a corrupt environment.

Florian Hartleb, a political scientist, emphasized to the American agency the need for vigilance, “The power of this organization is to have influence outside the Middle East... Paradoxically, the threat of ISIS has to be monitored more in the West at the moment.”

Moreover, the report revealed that Iraq recognizes the necessity of a strong ally like the US to counter any future ISIS resurgence and ensure economic stability. Despite calls for US withdrawal, Coningham pointed out, “NATO is also in Iraq... to counterbalance Iran’s influence in the country.” However, Iraq’s government appears to be passively allowing Iran to extend its influence among “Shia militias,” reflecting broader regional shifts towards Iranian dominance.

Coningham warned, “The elephant in the room... is that Iran is very close to acquiring nuclear weapons... This will create a domino effect and an arms race in the Middle East. This won’t be only a regional problem, but an international one.”

Giorgia Valente, a recent graduate of Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and an intern at The Media Line’s Press and Policy Student Program, contributed to this report.

Disclaimer: The views presented by the author do not necessarily reflect the official standpoint of Shafaq News Agency.