Shafaq News – Baghdad

Just twenty days before Iraq’s parliamentary elections, National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji landed in Tehran leading a high-ranking delegation on a visit that combined diplomacy, security coordination, and unmistakable political signaling.

The trip came at a moment of regional tension — a fragile Gaza ceasefire, new US sanctions on Iraqi entities, and growing speculation about an Israeli-Iranian confrontation — all factors that place Iraq squarely between two rival powers seeking influence over its political and security landscape.

Read more: Baghdad walks tightrope in Iran–Israel conflict

Security and Politics Intertwined

Officially, the visit aimed to enhance intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation and to reaffirm the 2023 Iran-Iraq security agreement. Iraqi sources described the talks as “sensitive and strategic,” addressing both the coordination against terrorism and US pressure on Baghdad to curb its ties with Tehran amid fresh American sanctions.

Yet the timing was unmistakably political. With the election campaign entering its decisive phase, Al-Araji’s trip stirred debate in Baghdad about whether the mission served Iraq’s institutional interests or personal ambitions. His name has circulated for months as a possible prime-ministerial contender, and Tehran’s reception appeared carefully choreographed — a nod to a familiar and reliable interlocutor in Baghdad.

Analyst Dr. Jalal Jaraghi, director of the Afaq Center for Iranian-Arab Studies in Tehran, told Shafaq News that “Iran views Iraq’s upcoming elections as critical to maintaining strategic depth. It wants a stable political environment in Baghdad, led by forces that favor dialogue and coordination with Tehran.”

The Tehran Sessions

During his stay, Al-Araji met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, and National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, in addition to senior military officials from the Revolutionary Guard and the General Staff.

In a joint press conference with Larijani, Al-Araji emphasized that “no one can undermine the deep relations between the peoples of Iraq and Iran,” reaffirming Baghdad’s commitment to “resolve international disputes through dialogue rather than confrontation.”

He revealed that Iraq had filed a formal complaint to the UN Security Council against Israel for launching strikes on Iran from Iraqi airspace, stressing that “no party has the right to use Iraq’s territory or skies to attack Iran.”

From the Kurdish side, Interior Minister Reber Ahmed confirmed that the Kurdistan Region “remains committed to the bilateral security agreement, including the disarmament of anti-Iranian armed groups, and will not allow its territory to be used against the Islamic Republic.”

Tehran’s Message: No Space for Ambiguity

For Iranian officials, the visit was an opportunity to reassert boundaries.

Larijani declared that both nations are determined to prevent “US and Israeli exploitation of Iraqi territory against Iran.”

Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi described the Iran-Iraq bond as a “strategic fraternity that worries Washington,” urging full implementation of the bilateral security accord.

Revolutionary Guard Ground Forces commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour delivered a blunt warning, “If we are attacked, our response will exceed the intensity of the 12-day war. We will make our enemies live in hell.”

Tehran’s rhetoric reflected a growing sense that the region may be sliding toward a new round of confrontation with Israel. Iranian strategists believe that the recent Gaza ceasefire, far from ending the conflict, may have been intended to allow Israel to open another front — potentially against Iran itself.

Khamenei’s Warning and Iran’s New Posture

Adding to the charged atmosphere, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently referred to statements of US President Donald Trump regarding the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, mocking Washington’s “illusion of success.” He asserted that Iran’s defense and scientific infrastructure remained intact and credited Iran’s resilience to its “knowledge-based power.”

According to Dr. Jaraghi, this statement signals a policy of deliberate ambiguity: “Iran tells the world that some sites were hit, while others claim the attack failed — a dual message designed to confuse its adversaries and project deterrence. At the same time, Tehran has clearly shifted eastward, deepening ties with Russia and China.”

He explained that Moscow and Beijing view Iran as the geographical bridge connecting their strategic corridors — from Central Asia to the Mediterranean via the Zangezur Corridor — and are reinforcing Iran’s air-defense and technological capabilities for any future confrontation with the West.

Jaraghi added that “the war only strengthened Iran; it learned to fortify its ground and air defenses and to rely on indigenous expertise. Even critics admit that Iran emerged from that confrontation more confident and less dependent on Western leverage.”

Washington’s Countermoves

In parallel, Washington is intensifying pressure on Baghdad. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio phoned Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani this week, urging him to “accelerate the disarmament of Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty and threaten both Iraqis and Americans.” He also pressed for faster progress on pending US investment deals in Iraq.

These remarks came on the heels of the US Treasury’s new sanctions on Iraqi companies accused of funneling money and intelligence to Iran-aligned armed groups. The measures highlight Washington’s concern that Tehran’s allies could dominate Iraq’s next parliament.

At the same time, Iran’s Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani made an unannounced visit to Baghdad days ago, meeting with leaders of Shiite factions and Coordination Framework parties to ease internal tensions. His message, according to political sources, was clear: maintain unity ahead of the elections and avoid public disputes that could weaken pro-Iran blocs.

Together, these two parallel campaigns — US sanctions and Iranian mediation — illustrate how both powers are maneuvering to shape Iraq’s political landscape before voters head to the polls.

Read more: Armed factions in the region: Retrenchment, repositioning, or decline?

Between Two Fires

Iraq’s government has been praised for navigating these rival pressures.

When Israel and Iran exchanged strikes earlier this year, Al-Sudani’s administration managed to keep Iraq neutral — an act many Iraqis saw as proof of maturity and strategic independence. Yet neutrality may be increasingly hard to sustain.

Baghdad depends on Tehran for energy and security cooperation, yet in Washington for financial access and international legitimacy. Every escalation between the two powers exposes Iraq’s vulnerability. Al-Araji’s visit to Tehran, therefore, was less about protocol and more about crisis prevention — a bid to ensure that Iraq does not again become the arena of others’ wars.

A Test of Iraq’s Neutrality

Observers in Baghdad also see the visit as a message to domestic and foreign audiences alike.

For Tehran, it reaffirmed Iraq’s commitment to the bilateral security pact and its unwillingness to let Israeli or American operations breach Iranian sovereignty.

For Washington, it underscored that Iraq’s security establishment still values coordination with its eastern neighbor — even under sanctions pressure.

And for Iraq’s own political class, it hinted that Al-Araji remains a trusted interlocutor for both sides, a potential consensus figure in a post-election landscape that could demand compromise.

As the region braces for potential turbulence — from Gaza to the Gulf — Iraq’s balancing act grows more delicate. The country’s stability will depend on whether it can continue to serve as a mediator rather than a front line.

Al-Araji’s meetings in Tehran and Qaani’s quiet shuttle diplomacy in Baghdad together suggest that both Iran and Iraq prefer de-escalation for now. Yet the competing pressures from Washington and Tehran make that balance increasingly precarious.

In this sense, Al-Araji’s visit was more than a diplomatic ritual: it was a reflection of Iraq’s enduring struggle to define sovereignty in a neighborhood where every handshake and every airstrike reverberate far beyond its borders.

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Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.