Shafaq News

Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for November 11, 2025, are shaping up to be a pivotal yet deeply problematic juncture for the country’s democratic trajectory. With a record-breaking 7,900 candidates vying for 329 seats in the Council of Representatives, the surface impression is one of vigorous democratic engagement. Yet beneath the numbers lies a troubling portrait of structural dysfunction, eroded public trust, and the risk of intensifying political gridlock.

A Numbers Game Without Vision

The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) attributes the candidate surge to Iraq’s proportional representation system and its application of the Sainte-Laguë method, designed to promote electoral fairness. However, political alliances have exploited this formula by fielding double or even triple the number of candidates per seat—a legally permissible strategy that has turned the election into what Analyst Abbas al-Jubouri calls “political noise, not a contest of leadership.”

This numerical inflation reflects a broader problem: the proliferation of parties and coalitions with little ideological coherence or policy clarity. Iraq now hosts over 400 registered political parties and around 140 electoral alliances, many lacking any substantive vision. Rather than signaling political diversity, the massive candidacy count appears driven by a scramble for influence, state resources, and parliamentary immunity.

Legal Vacuum Behind Electoral Chaos

A core structural weakness enabling this dysfunction is the absence of a comprehensive party regulation law. In the current vacuum, political parties are not legally required to disclose their sources of funding, membership structures, or internal governance. This opacity, according to political Commentator Abdullah al-Kanani, allows ruling elites to preserve their influence by constantly rebranding themselves under new banners.

Campaign financing further compounds the problem. Al-Kanani warns that spending on this election may surpass 2 trillion Iraqi dinars (approximately $1.5 billion), a figure fueled in part by illicit funds and unregulated donor networks.

The landscape was further destabilized by the announced boycott of Iraq’s largest Shia political movement, led by cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. His group’s withdrawal casts a shadow over the elections, likely depressing voter turnout and deepening sectarian fragmentation in an already fragile political order.

Parliament’s Record of Failure

The credibility crisis extends beyond the electoral system to the performance of the outgoing parliament. Lawmakers failed to pass more than 150 draft bills and were frequently absent from key sessions. Political Researcher Ali al-Nasser bluntly summarizes the legislature’s legacy, “It collapsed in performance long before it dissolved.”

Al-Nasser warns that this election risks becoming a cynical numbers game, where inflated candidacies serve to project the illusion of democratic engagement. He cites one electoral alliance that has fielded 470 candidates nationwide, interpreting this not as political inclusion but a deliberate attempt to “game the system.”

This perception is widely shared among Iraqi voters, many of whom see little hope that new faces will bring new results. The lack of accountability, coupled with the enduring dominance of elite-controlled blocs, continues to alienate citizens and depress faith in electoral institutions.

The Return of a Flawed Framework

After the 2019 protest movement, Iraq introduced localized voting districts to facilitate the emergence of independent candidates and curb bloc dominance. Those gains have now been partially reversed. According to IHEC spokesperson Jumana al-Ghalai, the 2025 elections will be conducted under the amended Law No. 12 of 2018—a system critics argue favors established powers.

“This framework was not designed for new voices,” says al-Jubouri. “It’s designed to protect old powers in new disguises.”

The regression in electoral design, combined with the persistent absence of institutional reform, underscores the limits of Iraq’s democratic evolution. Despite six rounds of electoral law changes since 2003, the political system remains captive to entrenched interests.

Ritual Without Remedy

Iraq’s 2025 elections arrive at a moment of deep economic distress, regional instability, and domestic political fatigue. For many observers, they offer a costly repetition of entrenched failures. Al-Kanani encapsulates the prevailing sentiment, “This is not democratic momentum—it’s democratic exhaustion.”

With just four months to go, the stakes are not limited to who wins or loses. The deeper question is whether Iraqis still believe that elections can meaningfully shape their country’s future.

In the absence of a structural overhaul, Iraq’s elections may increasingly resemble a ritual—carefully choreographed but devoid of remedy.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.