Shafaq News

As the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other entered its thirteenth day, Iraq has become the clearest example of the contradiction between Iran’s diplomatic messaging and the operational reality of its allied factions: while Tehran’s diplomats insist Iran has not directly targeted Iraqi territory “so far,” waves of drone and missile attacks attributed to Iran-aligned factions continue to strike sites across the country, particularly in the Kurdistan Region.

The contradiction between diplomatic messaging and battlefield reality has become increasingly visible. Iran’s consul in Basra, Ali Abedi, told Shafaq News earlier that Tehran was exercising restraint and had not targeted US bases in Iraq “so far,” as long as those bases were not used to launch attacks against Iran. Yet during the same period, the Iran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) announced hundreds of operations against American interests and facilities it claims are linked to the US presence in the country.

According to statements issued by the factions, 291 operations were carried out over 12 days targeting US sites in Iraq and the region. The groups also claimed they had killed 13 Americans and wounded dozens more. The US-led coalition, however, said it intercepted many of the attacks and has not announced any confirmed American casualties.

The scale of the attacks has been most visible in the Kurdistan Region. Erbil Governor Omed Khoshnaw said the city had faced 176 aerial attacks in just ten days, most of them involving drones or rockets targeting military sites hosting coalition forces, including Harir Air Base and the vicinity of Erbil International Airport. Similar incidents have also been reported near Baghdad airport, where facilities linked to US logistical support are located.

Since the outbreak of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, regions across Iraq and the Kurdistan Region have been hit by repeated drone and missile attacks attributed to Iran-aligned factions. According to a tally cited by Reuters, at least 16 people have been killed in Iraq since the escalation began, including a commander from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq who died in an airstrike on his vehicle earlier this month.

Baghdad Seeks Distance From The War

Caught between regional escalation and internal security pressures, the Iraqi government has tried to distance the country from the widening conflict. Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said during a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Iraq rejects the war targeting Iran and will not allow its territory to be used as a launch point for attacks, while warning that attacks targeting Iraqi territory represent a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and undermine efforts to contain the conflict and restore diplomatic dialogue.

Pezeshkian praised Iraq’s efforts to maintain regional stability and reaffirmed Iran’s respect for the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, remarks that came even as attacks attributed to Tehran-aligned factions continued across Iraq.

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry also condemned incidents targeting diplomatic and consular missions in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region amid the rising tensions, reaffirming the government’s responsibility to protect foreign facilities operating in the country.

At the same time, Baghdad has begun preparing for a new phase of security threats linked to drone warfare. The government approved the purchase of counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) designed to intercept hostile drones after attacks struck several provinces, including Erbil, Babil, and al-Anbar.

Strategy Of “Expanding The Fire”

For some analysts, the intensifying attacks inside Iraq reflect a broader Iranian strategy rather than spontaneous factional actions.

Ahmed al-Yasiri, head of the Arab Australian Center for Strategic Studies, told Shafaq News that the pattern of operations suggests the presence of a coordinated regional approach often described as a strategy of “expanding the fire.”

“Iran’s defensive doctrine relies on what could be described as ‘distraction fronts,’” al-Yasiri said. “These factions operate as pressure tools within a wider regional strategy, similar to how Hezbollah has been activated in Lebanon during periods of escalation.”

According to al-Yasiri, the Iraqi arena represents an important front in that strategy because it hosts American military facilities and economic interests while remaining politically sensitive for Tehran.

“The Iraqi front is a front of pressure against the Americans,” he explained. “These factions are not acting randomly; they are linked to the broader framework set by the Revolutionary Guard and ideologically connected to the concept of Wilayat al-Faqih.”

However, al-Yasiri warned that the most dangerous aspect of the escalation may not be the attacks on foreign targets, but strikes that affect Iraqi infrastructure, which could be “the worst scenario. Iran still considers Iraq a friendly arena, but factions may exploit the war to impose a new political and security reality on the Iraqi state and society.”

Read more: US expert: Kurdish forces alone cannot defeat Iran’s IRGC

Tehran’s Perspective

A different interpretation comes from observers closer to Tehran’s political thinking.

Saleh al-Qazwini, a writer and researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, said Iran generally views attacks on US bases and interests as a legitimate response to what it considers hostile activities in the region.

“Iran sees the presence of American bases as harmful to the countries that host them,” al-Qazwini told Shafaq News. “From Tehran’s perspective, these bases function as centers of intelligence activity and political influence aimed at destabilizing the region.”

He argued that US diplomatic and military institutions in Iraq play a role in shaping Iraqi decision-making and security dynamics.

“The United States does not spend billions of dollars in the region without objectives,” he said. “Therefore, targeting these interests is seen by Iran as contributing to regional security.”

Why Kurdistan Became The Primary Arena

The contradiction between Iran’s diplomatic posture and the operational activity of its allied factions is most visible in the Kurdistan Region, which has become the primary arena for drone and missile attacks.

Iranian affairs expert Mahdi Azizi told Shafaq News that the entry of Iraqi factions into the confrontation happened gradually before reaching its current intensity.

“The coordination within what is known as the Axis of Resistance under the principle of ‘unity of arenas’ has reached advanced stages,” Azizi said. He noted that despite political assurances from Kurdish leaders, Tehran still perceives the Kurdistan Region as a potential security threat.

“In Iran’s strategic perception, Iraqi Kurdistan remains sensitive because of what it believes is the presence of foreign intelligence networks and Kurdish opposition groups [such as Komala, PJAK, and KDPI],” he explained.

Reports by CNN indicated that the United States, through the Central Intelligence Agency, has explored plans to arm Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in an effort to spark unrest inside Iran and potentially support ground operations in western parts of the country. The armed Iranian Kurdish groups, whose fighters are largely stationed along the Iraq–Iran border inside the Kurdistan Region, are estimated to number between 5,000 and 6,000 combatants. Several of these factions have issued statements since the start of the war suggesting possible movements against Iranian forces.

Kurdish officials in Iraq, however, have downplayed such scenarios. In an interview with Fox News, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan leader Bafel Talabani denied reports that Iranian Kurdish fighters had crossed into Iran from Iraqi territory, warning that external involvement in Iran’s internal conflict could provoke nationalist backlash and ultimately strengthen support for the Iranian state rather than weaken it.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani said the region is not part of the war and remains committed to stability and dialogue.

Despite those assurances, Erbil has increasingly become the main arena for drone and missile activity linked to the wider regional escalation.

Iran’s Dual Strategy in Iraq

For Iraqi politician Mithal al-Alusi, the contradiction between Iranian diplomatic statements and factional actions reflects a deeper structural reality within Iran’s political system.

“The Iranian regime has two faces,” al-Alusi told Shafaq News. “One is the government and foreign ministry, which present a diplomatic image to the world. The other is the real power structure represented by the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard, which manages the files of militias and the export of the revolution.”

According to al-Alusi, Iran has built extensive political and security influence in Iraq, allowing it to use the American presence as a bargaining tool in regional politics. He described attacks on the Kurdistan Region and economic and military facilities as part of a broader attempt to entrench Iranian leverage within Iraq’s political system while pressuring Washington.

A Fragile Balance

The growing wave of drone and missile attacks illustrates how Iraq has become one of the most active arenas in the broader confrontation between Iran and its adversaries. Tehran’s official rhetoric emphasizes restraint and respect for Iraqi sovereignty; however, the operational landscape inside the country tells a more complicated story shaped by armed factions, strategic rivalries, and regional power competition.

The war continues, and Iraq also continues to face a difficult balancing act: preserving its sovereignty and internal stability while navigating a regional conflict in which key actors inside its borders are deeply connected to the wider geopolitical struggle.

Read more: Caught between war and neutrality: Kurdistan navigates escalating US-Iran confrontation

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.