Shafaq News

Iraq stands at a precarious crossroads as tensions between Iran and Israel spiral across the Middle East. While Lebanon and Yemen have already been drawn into open clashes, Iraq’s position — hosting US bases and the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state-recognized umbrella of mostly Shiite members— places it at the core of any future escalation.

Observers warn that even if Baghdad tries to remain neutral, the country risks being dragged into a conflict that could shatter its fragile internal balance.

A Region on Edge

Recent Israeli strikes on Yemen killed the head of the Houthi-led government in Sanaa. The attack marked a dramatic shift in “rules of engagement” and prompted vows of retaliation. Yemeni political figures such as Hamed al-Bukhaiti told Shafaq News that operations against Israel will escalate in the coming days, from missile launches to the targeting of shipping routes.

That vision was echoed by Yemen’s Brigadier General Abed Mohammed al-Thawr, Deputy Head of the Houthi-affiliated Army’s Moral Guidance Department, who warned foreign security companies operating in Israel to leave, promising that future attacks would be “precise and harsh.”

Experts from Ramallah, Beirut, and Tehran all describe the region as entering a “sensitive and dangerous phase” where war could “erupt at any moment.” Israeli actions in southern Syria, ongoing strikes in Lebanon despite a ceasefire, and growing hostility toward Egypt and Jordan all point to a widening confrontation.

Iranian analyst Saeed Shawardi argued that while “losses are inevitable in such wars,” resistance movements across the region — from Hezbollah and Hamas to the PMF in Iraq — will not relent, framing their struggle as existential.

According to Shawardi, the losses are less severe than “submission, surrender, and the fragmentation of the region into small states subservient to Israel. This is something Iran will not accept, as it is preparing for a new war with Israel — though it will not initiate it, but will defend itself against any aggression.”

Moscow-based analyst Asif Melhem of the JSM Center added that these groups, though ideologically diverse, share the goal of opposing Israel and defending Palestine, which makes Iraq’s potential involvement “highly plausible.”

Iraq’s Critical Position

Unlike Lebanon or Yemen, Iraq has so far escaped confrontation. Yet analysts stress that the country’s role within the so-called “Axis of Resistance” makes neutrality nearly impossible if regional escalation intensifies.

Melhem noted to Shafaq News that Iraq could be “pulled in directly,” pointing to prior PMF participation in regional operations against Israel. “The logic of unity of fronts makes Iraq vulnerable to entanglement,” he said.

From Baghdad, security expert Ali al-Maamari emphasized that Iraq faces a unique dilemma: “Factions are caught between the US–Iraq strategic framework on one side and Iranian pressure on the other. With many resistance leaders in the region eliminated, Iraqi factions face growing pressure but also diminishing support from Tehran.”

Al-Maamari added that Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani’s government is unable to go beyond relaying Washington’s warning — that any Iraqi faction attacking Israel or US interests will be met with direct strikes.

Read more: Iraq after the Global Coalition: Between sovereignty and strategic risk

US Repositioning and the PMF Question

Washington has already begun reshaping its footprint in Iraq. Unannounced withdrawals from Ain al-Asad and Victory Base, with redeployments to Erbil and possibly Kuwait, are described by analysts as tactical repositioning rather than full withdrawal. Shafaq News confirmed through security sources that US forces will complete their exit from Ain al-Asad by mid-September.

At the same time, US pressure has intensified inside Iraq’s parliament to stall the PMF Authority Law. American officials fear the bill would legitimize and empower factions closely tied to Tehran. For pro-Iran leaders like Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s Qais al-Khazali and Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Ali al-Askari, such pressure is “political blackmail” that undermines sovereignty.

The confrontation over the PMF law illustrates Iraq’s central challenge: whether to integrate the PMF as a state institution or treat it as a potential liability in a coming regional war.

Baghdad’s Balancing Act

Prime Minister al-Sudani has sought to balance competing demands, warning that “any regional conflict will inevitably touch Iraq.” But his space to maneuver is shrinking. Kurdish and Sunni blocs view a stronger PMF as destabilizing, while Shiite factions threaten backlash if Washington continues to interfere.

Analyst Ibrahim al-Sarraj told Shafaq News that US troop repositioning “offers Baghdad symbolic gains in sovereignty” but fails to resolve the core dilemma: Iraq remains both a host to US forces and a hub for Iran’s regional allies. “That duality is unsustainable in a major war,” he said.

Scenarios for Iraq

Observers outline to Shafaq News three scenarios most relevant to Baghdad:

-Proxy escalation inside Iraq: PMF factions step up attacks on US positions if Israel strikes Iran, dragging Iraq into confrontation.

-Containment through US repositioning: Washington’s redeployments and al-Sudani’s balancing succeed in limiting Iraq’s exposure, though domestic tensions rise.

-Direct warfront in Iraq: If an Israel–Iran war breaks out, Iraq becomes a major battlefield as both US forces and PMF factions are targeted.

As EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell cautioned, “one wrong strike could close the narrow window that still exists for de-escalation.” That warning resonates most in Baghdad, where analysts agree Iraq has less room for error than any other front.

Iraq on the Edge of War

With Israel striking deep into Yemen, Hezbollah bracing for renewed clashes in Lebanon, and Iran signaling readiness for another confrontation, Iraq emerges as the most fragile link in a chain of escalation. Unlike Lebanon, where conflict is largely confined to one border, Iraq’s entanglement could trigger clashes across US bases, oil routes, and sectarian fault lines.

Analysts warn that Iraq’s margin for neutrality is vanishing. A single misstep — a PMF strike on US assets, an Israeli preemptive attack on Iraqi soil, or unchecked Iranian pressure — could ignite conflict across Iraq’s territory.