Shafaq News

With Iraq’s parliamentary elections set for November 11, doubts are mounting over whether the vote will happen on time.

Despite government affirmations of full readiness, political observers warn that a combination of internal divisions and escalating regional tensions could lead to postponement, undermine electoral participation, or challenge the legitimacy of the outcome.

The environment is widely viewed as a political minefield, with several factors appearing close to detonation.

Sadrist Boycott and Internal Political Strains

The most pressing concern, internally, is the absence of the Patriotic Shiite Movement (PSM) led by Muqtada al-Sadr (known as the Sadrist). This absence continues the political withdrawal that began with the movement's exit from parliament in 2022.

In March 2025, al-Sadr announced his movement’s boycott of the upcoming elections, a decision that has caused visible unease within the broader Shiite political community. The Sadrist base holds significant electoral weight in strategic areas in Southern and Middle Euphrates provinces such as Najaf, Karbala, Wasit, Qadisiyyah (Al-Diwaniyah), Muthanna, Maysan, Dhi Qar, Babil, and Basra, as well as Baghdad.

A Sadrist boycott could slash turnout in Shiite heartlands, casting doubt on the vote’s legitimacy and pushing Iraq’s politics into uncharted territory.

Another source of internal pressure stems from perceptions among Iran-aligned factions, known as the Coordination Framework, that efforts are underway to exclude them from Iraq’s political future. Although these groups intend to participate in the elections, internal sources told Shafaq News that they are facing unprecedented levels of pressure.

Sources told Shafaq News the factions face “unprecedented external pressure and internal targeting,” straining their ties with voters. This climate, they argue, is damaging the relationship between these factions and their voter base.

Security is fragile. No major threat has emerged yet — but sudden shocks remain a real possibility. The situation remains technically viable, but stability is fragile.

In addition, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the content of the electoral discourse. Campaigns and political programs have largely failed to engage with Iraq’s pressing socioeconomic issues. Persistent electricity shortages, severe water scarcity across regions, and growing concern over the Iraqi dinar’s exchange rate have yet to be meaningfully addressed in the platforms of the main electoral contenders. This disconnection between political messaging and public needs further alienates the electorate and raises questions about the utility of the elections themselves.

Regional Tensions Threaten Election Calendar

And the risks don’t stop at home — regional tensions add more uncertainty. The regional environment, already strained by economic pressures and security crises, casts a long shadow over Iraq’s ability to proceed with elections as planned. Analysts are divided: while some argue that sufficient political will and international guarantees could ensure the elections go ahead, others warn that the regional threats far outweigh procedural readiness.

A fresh Iran–Israel clash looms as the biggest threat to Iraq’s election timetable. Should the conflict escalate beyond previously observed limits, the spillover into Iraq could be immediate—especially through the activation or targeting of Iran-aligned factions operating on Iraqi soil.

Israeli strikes, such as the recent attack on Hamas leadership in Doha, have heightened fears that similar operations could occur in Iraq. Such developments would not only disrupt the security environment but could lead directly to the postponement of the vote.

Uncertain Path to Participation

Political researcher Nawal al-Moussawi suggests that the Sadrist Movement may not be opposed in principle to participation, but remains cautious due to unmet conditions in previous electoral cycles. Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Moussawi noted that "the 2021 experience, when none of the 13 conditions set by the movement were fulfilled, is the basis for their current hesitation,” adding that "popular, religious, and even international pressure exists to meet Sadrist demands, which could translate into support for figures like Adnan al-Zurfi or Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose platforms show relative distinction from the Coordination Framework."

Other voices downplay the likelihood of disruption. Political analyst Wael al-Rikabi told Shafaq News that "all conditions—political, financial, and security—are in place for the elections to proceed." He described calls for postponement as "unjustified," citing previous electoral rounds held under more difficult circumstances, including during the conflict with ISIS. "Participation is a constitutional right," he stated, adding that "those who choose to boycott are free to do so, but this should not obstruct a constitutional obligation."

Still, not all stakeholders share this optimism. MP Mukhtar al-Moussawi, a member of the Fatah Alliance within the Coordination Framework, acknowledged that while "current indicators suggest elections will proceed on schedule," the continued absence of the Sadrist Movement could skew representation.

He told Shafaq News that "the lack of Sadrist participation will impact Shiite representation, particularly in the southern provinces and Baghdad’s Al-Sadr City," adding that internal instability and regional interference could jeopardize the integrity of the electoral process.

Former MP Raheem al-Darraji voiced deeper skepticism, expressing doubt that any scenario—including postponement, extension, or cancellation—could be ruled out. "Nothing is settled," he told Shafaq News.

"With the region unstable, Iraq is caught in the middle — and the outcome is impossible to predict.”

In alignment with that view, political analyst Ali Habib identified regional conflict as the greatest threat to Iraq’s elections. He pointed specifically to the Israel-Iran tension, warning that Iraq could become a "secondary battleground for settling regional scores" should hostilities resume.

Habib also pointed to US sanctions on Iraqi armed factions with political representation, arguing that these sanctions intensify political pressure and may lead to de facto exclusion of certain actors—potentially increasing the likelihood of postponement.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.