Shafaq News

Iraq’s first national census in almost forty years has delivered a stark demographic verdict: a country adding people faster than it expands the systems needed to support them. Conducted on 20–21 November 2024, the survey recorded 46,118,793 residents across more than eight million households—a level of statistical clarity unavailable since the 1980s. What the data reveals is both familiar and now indisputable: more than 60 percent of Iraqis are aged 15 to 45, a youth-heavy society whose future hinges on whether its institutions can keep pace.

For the Ministry of Planning, the census is not merely an enumeration exercise but a national diagnostic. Ministry spokesperson Abdul Zahra al-Hindawi told Shafaq News that the data “diagnoses reality with its gaps,” giving the state a roadmap for redirecting investment and transitioning from fragmented project-based development to coordinated national planning.

The numbers pinpoint geographic pressure zones that have been visible for years but rarely quantified. Baghdad, Basra, Erbil, and Najaf continue to absorb large internal migrations, pushing service networks and infrastructure far beyond their design limits and accelerating unregulated urban sprawl.

Behind the rising population lies a structural challenge: a youthful demographic with limited economic channels. Iraq’s labor market remains dominated by public-sector employment and oil revenue—an equation that becomes increasingly unsustainable as the population climbs.

Member of Parliament Mohammed al-Baldawi told Shafaq News that Iraq has yet to translate its demographic weight into economic momentum. The country’s ability to diversify into agriculture, industry, and commerce remains limited, constraining job creation at the very moment the workforce is expanding. According to al-Baldawi, even Iraq’s intensifying housing pressure—often framed as a pricing crisis—"is rooted in decades of planning failures that kept new construction well below demographic demand.”

Property prices reflect this imbalance. Shafaq News investigations show older residential units selling for 100–150 million dinars (USD 70,000–105,000), while newer or centrally located homes can reach 250 million dinars (USD 175,000) or more.

Private-sector workers may earn 500,000 dinars per day, al-Baldawi noted, but the irregular and unregulated nature of those jobs makes mortgage participation difficult and keeps many households outside the formal credit system.

Former Planning Minister Nouri al-Dulaimi cautioned that as Iraq moves toward a population of 50 million, the divide between demographic expansion and state readiness will grow unless investment-led development accelerates. Overreliance “on public hiring, he warned, could intensify unemployment, widen service shortages, and deepen housing pressures.”

The census also exposes the fragility of Iraq’s service infrastructure.

Read more: Iraq’s population surges past 46M: Burden or opportunity?

Economic expert Ahmed Abdul Rabah told Shafaq News that population growth itself is not the crisis—governance is. Electricity networks, water and sanitation systems, hospitals, and schools are already operating beyond capacity, particularly in crowded urban centers. He described housing pressures, driven by land scarcity and insufficient lending pathways, as a “time bomb.”

According to official data, classrooms in Iraqi public schools are full with 50–70 students each, hospitals exceeding designed patient capacity, electricity systems are faltering under rising consumption, intensified by climate-driven heatwaves, and urban expansion outpacing municipal services. Without rapid infrastructure expansion, demographic pressure will continue to deepen Iraq’s structural vulnerabilities.

Beyond its statistical value, the census reveals a country where population growth accelerates even as state capacity struggles to keep up. This tension is magnified by Iraq’s fiscal architecture, which relies on oil for over 90 percent of government revenue, limiting resilience against market shocks and leaving long-term development tied to volatile energy markets.

Iraq’s vocational training systems also remain modest, private-sector credit flows are low, and regulatory barriers discourage entrepreneurship—all factors that weaken the economy’s ability to absorb new entrants into the workforce.

From the expert voices interviewed, one consensus emerges clearly: the challenge is not Iraq’s population size—it is Iraq’s ability to manage it. A youth-heavy society can be an economic driver only when paired with disciplined planning, diversified investment, and political commitment.

Absent these, Iraq risks deeper unemployment, expanding informal labor, unstable housing expansion, and service systems pushed toward breaking points.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.