Shafaq News

There is no clear basis to conclude that 2026 will be better than 2025, a year marked by wars, sharp economic volatility, severe financial disruptions, and widespread living crises across many countries.

Recent global developments leave little room for certainty about the direction of 2026. It is difficult to make accurate predictions amid overlapping political and economic risks, including recession, inflation, mounting debt, slowing growth, climate change, unemployment, poverty, corruption, and persistent uncertainty.

Expectations that these risks might recede in 2026 remain weak. No firm indicators that trade disputes, tariff wars, or protectionist policies, particularly those led by US President Donald Trump against multiple economies, will ease, or that military spending will decline in favor of investment in housing, education, and infrastructure.

War in Ukraine

Ukraine ceded additional territory in 2025 as the war with Russia intensified, confronting Kyiv with increasingly stark options, including the possibility of relinquishing lost areas to halt the fighting.

Despite expanding strikes deep inside Russian territory to an unprecedented extent, Ukraine failed to stop Russian advances, which continued at a slow but steady pace. Throughout the year, the conflict was marked by heavier combat, a rising civilian death toll, and sustained attacks on infrastructure in both countries, while front-line positions shifted only marginally.

Russian forces seized about 4,669 square kilometers of Ukrainian land in 2025, a 22 percent increase compared with the territory captured in 2024. The gains included areas such as Orekhovo, Moskovka, and Dolhynke.

Moscow intensified its offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine, pushing forward gradually in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance. By early July, Russian troops had taken full control of Luhansk province and captured scattered territories across Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson provinces, amounting to nearly 5,000 square kilometers, according to Kremlin statements.

Since the beginning of 2025, Russian forces have sustained a campaign of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. The bombardment hit multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Poltava, Lviv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia. The attacks severely disrupted electricity, water, and heating supplies in major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kremenchuk, while inflicting damage on critical energy infrastructure, including the Trypilska and Zmiivska thermal power plants.

Ukraine, meanwhile, struggled to mount successful large-scale counteroffensives. The sole notable exception came in mid-December, when Ukrainian forces reported recapturing most of the border city of Kupiansk in eastern Kharkiv province.

By midyear, Kyiv redirected its efforts toward striking Russian oil wells, refineries, export ports, and energy facilities across multiple regions. On July 1, Ukraine said it carried out a high-profile operation, dubbed “Spider Web,” deep inside Russian territory, targeting four air bases. Ukraine’s Security Service said the operation destroyed 41 bombers —around 34 percent of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet— and inflicted losses estimated at no less than $7 billion.

Moscow responded by intensifying drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s power generation and transmission infrastructure nationwide. The renewed campaign plunged cities back into darkness and forced the reinstatement of emergency and scheduled power outages, echoing conditions last seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.

The situation worsened as severe winter weather set in, compounded by delays and disruptions to the heating season after Russian strikes hit major gas storage facilities.

Following US President Donald Trump’s return to office, Washington adopted a tougher posture toward Kyiv. Trump repeatedly criticized and pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, escalating political tensions between the allies.

By the end of 2025, diplomatic efforts had failed to yield any breakthrough or political settlement to end the war. A new US peace initiative surfaced late in the year, but Russia has so far rejected it, with the Kremlin saying it has not reviewed the latest revised version of the proposal.

Meanwhile, Ukraine increasingly pivoted toward Europe, which for the first time since the war began in February 2022 effectively became Kyiv’s main channel for acquiring most of its needs from Washington during the year.

Latin America on Edge

The Caribbean witnessed an escalation in US military activity near Venezuela’s shores in 2025, with Washington announcing a series of security and strategic operations it said were aimed at countering drug trafficking networks.

Venezuela, however, condemned the moves as a direct challenge to its sovereignty and warned that the buildup risked destabilizing the broader region.

President Nicolas Maduro declined to address claims by US President Donald Trump earlier this week that the United States had attacked Venezuelan territory. Despite sidestepping the question, Maduro signaled a willingness to engage with Washington, even as the United States has stepped up pressure on Caracas in recent weeks.

Maduro said he was “ready” to hold talks with the United States on drug enforcement, oil, and economic cooperation, underscoring his openness to dialogue amid strained relations fueled by the deployment of US warships in the Caribbean.

Since September, US forces have conducted roughly 30 operations in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific against vessels Washington suspects of involvement in drug smuggling. The strikes reportedly resulted in about 107 deaths.

To date, the United States has not provided evidence to substantiate claims that the targeted vessels were transporting narcotics.

Caracas has accused the Trump administration of using what it describes as unfounded drug trafficking allegations as a pretext to weaken Maduro’s government and gain access to Venezuela’s vast oil resources.

Trump’s actions against Venezuela’s oil sector draw on the “Project 2025” policy blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation, which revives the Monroe Doctrine in a more hardline form described by its authors as tailored to a “Trump-era crisis.”

Project 2025 frames full US control over energy resources in the Western Hemisphere as a strategic necessity to counter growing Chinese and Russian influence. To legitimize this approach, the Venezuelan government and its state oil institutions were designated under terrorism-related classifications, a move that legally redefined Venezuelan oil from a commercial commodity into an “illicit asset” subject to seizure.

This policy shift materialized in late 2025 with the imposition of a maritime blockade and the interception of oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude.

While tensions between Washington and Caracas have spanned decades, the new US administration has revived a traditional strategy built on political, economic, and military pressure, accompanied by sharper rhetoric toward the Venezuelan leadership. US officials have repeatedly accused the Maduro government of corruption, drug trafficking, and posing a threat to regional security.

United States and Global Politics

The United States and the wider world are also approaching the US midterm congressional elections, which are expected to shape President Trump’s political standing domestically and internationally.

The outcome could either consolidate his position or result in the loss of a majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate. Such a shift could have significant domestic consequences and may force changes in US foreign policy positions or limit the administration’s ability to make key internal decisions.

Asia and Strategic Rivalries

Despite ending quickly, the latest confrontation between India and Pakistan is viewed as capable of resurfacing in different forms, even as both sides and international actors appear determined to avoid escalation into a nuclear conflict.

Tensions between China and Taiwan remained elevated throughout 2025, marked by sharp rhetoric and sustained military signaling, but stopped short of confrontation.

Both sides carried out repeated military exercises over the year, using drills to convey strategic messages rather than escalate into open hostilities. The standoff sharpened toward the end of 2025, when the Chinese military concluded exercises around Taiwan aimed at simulating a blockade of the island. Taipei responded by vowing to defend its sovereignty “with resolve.”

In parallel, Chinese President Xi Jinping used his New Year address to reaffirm Beijing’s position, saying the reunification of the nation could not be prevented.

The latest escalation came last Tuesday, when the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army launched a two-day live fire exercise around Taiwan under the name “Justice Mission 2025.” The drills surrounded large parts of the island and followed less than two weeks after the United States approved an $11.1 billion arms package for Taipei, the largest military assistance package Taiwan has received from Washington.

The exercise mobilized ground, naval, air, and missile forces, including stealth fighter jets, destroyers, and missile-launch platforms, underscoring Beijing’s growing operational reach.

In early 2026, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said it detected 31 Chinese warships and 16 coast guard vessels operating in the area during the drills. The ministry also reported 207 sorties by Chinese military aircraft, well above the 135 sorties recorded during a two-day exercise in April and the 153 logged during a one-day drill in October.

Despite the surge in activity, deterrence dynamics continue to prevent a direct clash. China views Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. The United States, while not recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state, opposes any attempt to change the status quo by force and is legally obligated to provide Taipei with defensive weapons.

By 2025, it had become increasingly clear that the international system was operating under a new reality, one defined less by decisive solutions and more by efforts to contain crises and prevent systemic collapse. Conflicts dragged on without clear outcomes, political compromises emerged stripped of fairness, and rivalry among major powers deepened, with no evident vision for a more balanced and durable global order.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.