Shafaq News- Washington

After US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Monday that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to halt attacks against each other, and the Lebanese Embassy in Washington’s later claim the group had accepted the US proposal for a reciprocal halt, questions remain over how any arrangement would be implemented on the ground and whether it can evolve into a broader ceasefire.

Raphael Cohen, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at RAND Project AIR FORCE and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told Shafaq News that Israel is unlikely to withdraw from southern Lebanon without a security buffer zone for as long as Hezbollah remains a coherent military force.

“The durability of the ceasefire depends on what happens on the ground, not what gets announced in Washington,” Cohen explained, adding that “time will tell whether or not the ceasefire will hold,” given that similar arrangements have collapsed before.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be reluctant to withdraw from Lebanon without “real security in northern Israel,” Cohen said, predicting a strong push within Netanyahu's coalition to maintain “some sort of security buffer zone.”

Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah has countered, following Trump’s and the Embassy’s announcements, that the group's position remained a comprehensive ceasefire across all Lebanese territory followed by a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, insisting there would be “no return to the situation that existed before March 2,” a period of 15 months reaching back to the November 27, 2024 ceasefire, during which Israel freely struck Lebanon without response, killing around 500 people, including women and children.

Turning to the broader negotiations between the Trump administration and Tehran, Cohen said Iran's effort to link the two arenas, including Lebanon, had added a layer of complexity. Despite those complications, “Eventually, there will be a deal,” he told Shafaq News. “The question is less ‘will there be a deal?’ and just how long will it take and how much pain will it take,” arguing that the absence of a decisive military outcome has left diplomacy as the only viable path forward.