Shafaq News/ Oil prices could soar beyond $200 per barrel if the war extends to Gulf countries and Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, halting the daily flow of approximately 20 million barrels to global markets, Iraqi economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi predicted on Friday.

Al-Marsoumi outlined two possible scenarios for the looming "oil war." The first envisions Israel targeting Iran's key oil export hubs, particularly Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass. This attack would take 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil off the market, raising prices by roughly $5 per barrel to around $82. However, he noted that "this would also cut off the most important source of Iranian funding."

“In such a case, OPEC+ may intervene by removing voluntary and mandatory production limits, ensuring sufficient oil supplies to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil. This intervention could bring prices back down to around $70 per barrel,” he affirmed.

As for the second scenario, Al-Marsoumi suggested that “the war could extend to include oil pumping and export stations in the Gulf, which would negatively impact Gulf oil exports, particularly from Saudi Arabia, pushing prices above $100 per barrel.”

The economic expert also pointed out, “Iran has previously stated that if it is prevented from exporting its oil, it would block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,” explaining, “If Iran closes the Strait, it would halt approximately 20 million barrels of global oil supplies daily, driving prices to $200 per barrel and negatively affecting gas shipments passing through the Strait.”

Al-Marsoumi further clarified, “An Israeli strike would likely target oil installations, especially Iranian refineries, which would take 300,000 to 400,000 barrels of Iranian exports off the market.” Nevertheless, he noted that this would have “minimal impact on global oil prices, particularly with Libyan oil returning to previous levels.”